Conjuring the Ghosts of Missing Children: A Monte Carlo Simulation of Reproductive Restraint in Tokugawa Japan.
This article quantifies the frequency of infanticide and abortion in one region of Japan by comparing observed fertility in a sample of 4.9 million person-years (1660-1872) with a Monte Carlo simulation of how many conceptions and births that population should have experienced. The simulation uses e...
| Publicado en: | Demography (Springer Nature) Vol. 52; no. 2; pp. 667 - 704 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Springer Nature
Apr2015
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=101989139&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 101989139 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00703370 DEM jtl: Demography (Springer Nature) issn: 00703370 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Apr2015 vid: 52 iid: 2 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature artinfo: ui: 101989139 10.1007/s13524-015-0378-1 ppf: 667 ppct: 37 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P size: 2MB tig: atl: Conjuring the Ghosts of Missing Children: A Monte Carlo Simulation of Reproductive Restraint in Tokugawa Japan. aug: au: Drixler, Fabian affil: Department of History, Yale University, New Haven 06520-8324 USA su: Japan Missing children Infanticide Abortion Magic tricks Monte Carlo method sug: subj: Missing children Infanticide Abortion Japan Magic tricks Monte Carlo method keyword: Fertility Indirect estimation techniques for detecting family limitation Simulation of human reproduction Fertility Indirect estimation techniques for detecting family limitation Simulation of human reproduction ab: This article quantifies the frequency of infanticide and abortion in one region of Japan by comparing observed fertility in a sample of 4.9 million person-years (1660-1872) with a Monte Carlo simulation of how many conceptions and births that population should have experienced. The simulation uses empirical values for the determinants of fertility from Eastern Japan itself as well as the best available studies of comparable populations. This procedure reveals that in several decades of the eighteenth century, at least 40 % of pregnancies must have ended in either an induced abortion or an infanticide. In addition, the simulation results imply a rapid decline in the incidence of infanticide and abortion during the nineteenth century, when in a reverse fertility transition, this premodern family-planning regime gave way to a new age of large families. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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