Point Predictions and the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory: A Data Mining Approach- U. S. Nuclear Policy as Proof of Concept.
In Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), information processing under the constraints of limited attention and bounded rationality leads to stick-slip dynamics in policy outcomes. Empirical work in this field often focuses on the macro level. Using the case of nuclear energy policy in the United Stat...
| Publicado en: | Policy Studies Journal Vol. 43; no. 2; pp. 228 - 257 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Case Study |
| Publicado: |
Wiley-Blackwell
May2015
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=102275874&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 102275874 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 0190292X PSJ jtl: Policy Studies Journal issn: 0190292X maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: May2015 vid: 43 iid: 2 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell artinfo: ui: 102275874 10.1111/psj.12089 ppf: 228 ppct: 29 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 259KB tig: atl: Point Predictions and the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory: A Data Mining Approach- U. S. Nuclear Policy as Proof of Concept. aug: au: Hegelich, Simon Fraune, Cornelia Knollmann, David su: United States United States. Congress Punctuated equilibrium (Social science) Energy Policy Act of 2005 Nuclear energy policy Executive power sug: subj: Punctuated equilibrium (Social science) United States United States. Congress Executive Offices Nuclear Electric Power Generation Other federal government public administration Legislative Bodies Energy Policy Act of 2005 Nuclear energy policy Executive power keyword: data mining nuclear energy Punctuated Equilibrium Theory data mining nuclear energy Punctuated Equilibrium Theory ab: In Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), information processing under the constraints of limited attention and bounded rationality leads to stick-slip dynamics in policy outcomes. Empirical work in this field often focuses on the macro level. Using the case of nuclear energy policy in the United States as proof of concept, we demonstrate how decisive budget changes in a specific policy subsystem can be linked to attention of Congress and the president. We utilize a mixed-methods data-mining approach: Maximum likelihood estimation is used to analyze the distribution of the nuclear energy RD& D budget. Then attention data of both Congress and the president are structured by means of cluster analysis and principal component analysis. Finally, these data are used in a generalized linear model to predict specific budget shifts. The article is designed as a proof of concept: In the case of nuclear energy policy, we are able to predict budget shifts without violating the assumptions of PET. More importantly: we can demonstrate that attention is not only affecting the final policy outcome but also the corridor of the possible. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Case Study src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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