Sexual Mixing in Shanghai: Are Heterosexual Contact Patterns Compatible With an HIV/AIDS Epidemic?

China's HIV prevalence is low, mainly concentrated among female sex workers (FSWs), their clients, men who have sex with men, and the stable partners of members of these high-risk groups. We evaluate the contribution to the spread of HIV of China's regime of heterosexual relations, of the structure...

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Publicado en:Demography (Springer Nature) Vol. 52; no. 3; pp. 919 - 943
Autores principales: Merli, M., Moody, James, Mendelsohn, Joshua, Gauthier, Robin
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Springer Nature Jun2015
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Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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      dt: Jun2015
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      pub: Springer Nature
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        10.1007/s13524-015-0383-4
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        atl: Sexual Mixing in Shanghai: Are Heterosexual Contact Patterns Compatible With an HIV/AIDS Epidemic?
      aug:
        au:
          Merli, M.
          Moody, James
          Mendelsohn, Joshua
          Gauthier, Robin
        affil:
          Duke Population Research Institute, Sanford School of Public Policy, Department of Sociology and Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham 27708 USA
          RAND Corporation, 1776 Main Street Santa Monica 90401 USA
          REACH Lab, Department of Sociology, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 209 Benton Hall Lincoln 68588-0623 USA
      su:
        China
        HIV infection transmission
        Epidemiology
        AIDS epidemiology
        Disease prevalence
      sug:
        subj:
          HIV infection transmission
          Epidemiology
          China
          AIDS epidemiology
          Disease prevalence
      keyword:
        Assortative mating
        HIV/STI
        Network simulation
        Sexual networks
        Assortative mating
        HIV/STI
        Network simulation
        Sexual networks
      ab: China's HIV prevalence is low, mainly concentrated among female sex workers (FSWs), their clients, men who have sex with men, and the stable partners of members of these high-risk groups. We evaluate the contribution to the spread of HIV of China's regime of heterosexual relations, of the structure of heterosexual networks, and of the attributes of key population groups with simulations driven by data from a cross-sectional survey of egocentric sexual networks of the general population of Shanghai and from a concurrent respondent-driven sample of FSWs. We find that the heterosexual network generated by our empirically calibrated simulations has low levels of partner change, strong constraints on partner selection by age and education, and a very small connected core, mainly comprising FSWs and their clients and characterized by a fragile transmission structure. This network has a small HIV epidemic potential but is compatible with the transmission of bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs), such as syphilis, which are less susceptible to structural breaks in transmission of infection. Our results suggest that policies that force commercial sex underground could have an adverse effect on the spread of HIV and other STIs.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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