Delineating prototypical patterns of substance use initiations over time.

Aims The purpose of this paper is to discover patterns of drug use initiations over time through a multiple event process survival mixture model (MEPSUM model), a novel approach for substance use and prevention research. Design The MEPSUM model combines survival analysis and mixture modeling-specifi...

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Publicado en:Addiction Vol. 110; no. 4; pp. 585 - 595
Autores principales: Dean, Danielle O., Cole, Veronica, Bauer, Daniel J.
Formato: research tables/charts Journal Article
Publicado: Wiley-Blackwell Apr2015
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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      pub: Wiley-Blackwell
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        atl: Delineating prototypical patterns of substance use initiations over time.
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        au:
          Dean, Danielle O.
          Cole, Veronica
          Bauer, Daniel J.
        affil: Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
      sug:
        subj:
          Substance Abuse Etiology
          Time Factors
          Survival Analysis
          Models, Statistical
          Substance Abuse Complications
          Human
          Structural Equation Modeling
          Cross Sectional Studies
          Male
          Female
          Descriptive Statistics
          Sex Factors
          Ethnic Groups
          Race Factors
          Random Sample
          Adolescence
          Adult
          Data Analysis Software
          Maximum Likelihood
          Probability
          Young Adult
          Confidence Intervals
          Post Hoc Analysis
          Odds Ratio
          Multiple Regression
          Adolescent: 13-18 years
          Adult: 19-44 years
          Male
          Female
      ab: Aims The purpose of this paper is to discover patterns of drug use initiations over time through a multiple event process survival mixture model (MEPSUM model), a novel approach for substance use and prevention research. Design The MEPSUM model combines survival analysis and mixture modeling-specifically latent class analysis-to examine individual differences in the timing of initiation and cumulative risk of substance use over time, and is applied to cross-sectional survey data on drug initiations. Setting Data are drawn from the 2009 National Survey on Drug Use and Health. Participants The survey includes responses from 55 772 individuals (52.05% female). Measurements The age of first use of nine different types of substances are examined, including alcohol, tobacco, cocaine and non-medical use of prescription drugs. Findings It is argued that six patterns parsimoniously describe the population's risk of initiating different substances over time, described colloquially as general abstainers; early, late and progressive soft drug users; and early and late hard drug users. Both gender and ethnicity significantly predict the patterns, with Caucasians and males having a higher risk for the hard drug-using patterns. The MEPSUM model produced stable results in this application, as the patterns are validated in a split-sample design. Conclusions The MEPSUM model provides a statistical framework from which to evaluate patterns of risk for drug initiations over time and predict substance use trajectories relevant to public health interventions. The patterns that result from the model can be used as outcomes for subsequent investigations of etiological and mediating mechanisms.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype:
        research
        tables/charts
        Journal Article
      ougenre: Article
    language: English
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