Delineating prototypical patterns of substance use initiations over time.
Aims The purpose of this paper is to discover patterns of drug use initiations over time through a multiple event process survival mixture model (MEPSUM model), a novel approach for substance use and prevention research. Design The MEPSUM model combines survival analysis and mixture modeling-specifi...
| Publicado en: | Addiction Vol. 110; no. 4; pp. 585 - 595 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | research tables/charts Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
Wiley-Blackwell
Apr2015
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=103776146&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 103776146 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 09652140 AIO jtl: Addiction issn: 09652140 maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: Apr2015 vid: 110 iid: 4 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell place: Malden, Massachusetts artinfo: ui: 103776146 101555902 10.1111/add.12816 NLM25429736 103776146 ppf: 585 ppct: 10 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P tig: atl: Delineating prototypical patterns of substance use initiations over time. aug: au: Dean, Danielle O. Cole, Veronica Bauer, Daniel J. affil: Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill sug: subj: Substance Abuse Etiology Time Factors Survival Analysis Models, Statistical Substance Abuse Complications Human Structural Equation Modeling Cross Sectional Studies Male Female Descriptive Statistics Sex Factors Ethnic Groups Race Factors Random Sample Adolescence Adult Data Analysis Software Maximum Likelihood Probability Young Adult Confidence Intervals Post Hoc Analysis Odds Ratio Multiple Regression Adolescent: 13-18 years Adult: 19-44 years Male Female ab: Aims The purpose of this paper is to discover patterns of drug use initiations over time through a multiple event process survival mixture model (MEPSUM model), a novel approach for substance use and prevention research. Design The MEPSUM model combines survival analysis and mixture modeling-specifically latent class analysis-to examine individual differences in the timing of initiation and cumulative risk of substance use over time, and is applied to cross-sectional survey data on drug initiations. Setting Data are drawn from the 2009 National Survey on Drug Use and Health. Participants The survey includes responses from 55 772 individuals (52.05% female). Measurements The age of first use of nine different types of substances are examined, including alcohol, tobacco, cocaine and non-medical use of prescription drugs. Findings It is argued that six patterns parsimoniously describe the population's risk of initiating different substances over time, described colloquially as general abstainers; early, late and progressive soft drug users; and early and late hard drug users. Both gender and ethnicity significantly predict the patterns, with Caucasians and males having a higher risk for the hard drug-using patterns. The MEPSUM model produced stable results in this application, as the patterns are validated in a split-sample design. Conclusions The MEPSUM model provides a statistical framework from which to evaluate patterns of risk for drug initiations over time and predict substance use trajectories relevant to public health interventions. The patterns that result from the model can be used as outcomes for subsequent investigations of etiological and mediating mechanisms. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: research tables/charts Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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