Research. A Unified Spatiotemporal Modeling Approach for Predicting Concentrations of Multiple Air Pollutants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution.
Background: Cohort studies of the relationship between air pollution exposure and chronic health effects require predictions of exposure over long periods of time. Objectives: We developed a unified modeling approach for predicting fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, and b...
| Publicado en: | Environmental Health Perspectives Vol. 123; no. 4; pp. 301 - 310 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
| Formato: | equations & formulas pictorial research tables/charts Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
Apr2015
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=103790189&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 103790189 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 00916765 3B5 jtl: Environmental Health Perspectives issn: 00916765 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Apr2015 vid: 123 iid: 4 pid: 56539 pub: National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences place: Research Triangle Park, North Carolina artinfo: ui: 103790189 102123090 10.1289/ehp.1408145 103790189 ppf: 301 ppct: 9 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P tig: atl: Research. A Unified Spatiotemporal Modeling Approach for Predicting Concentrations of Multiple Air Pollutants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution. aug: au: Keller, Joshua P. Olives, Casey Sun-Young Kim Sheppard, Lianne Sampson, Paul D. Szpiro, Adam A. Oron, Assaf P. Lindström, Johan Vedal, Sverre Kaufman, Joel D. affil: Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA sug: subj: Models, Statistical Air Pollution Epidemiology Air Pollution Trends Atherosclerosis Risk Factors Air Pollution Adverse Effects United States by Individual State Environmental Monitoring Particulate Matter Evaluation Nitrogen Oxides Carbon Compounds, Inorganic Forecasting (Research) Funding Source ab: Background: Cohort studies of the relationship between air pollution exposure and chronic health effects require predictions of exposure over long periods of time. Objectives: We developed a unified modeling approach for predicting fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, and black carbon (as measured by light absorption coefficient) in six U.S. metropolitan regions from 1999 through early 2012 as part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). Methods: We obtained monitoring data from regulatory networks and supplemented those data with study-specific measurements collected from MESA Air community locations and participants' homes. In each region, we applied a spatiotemporal model that included a long-term spatial mean, time trends with spatially varying coefficients, and a spatiotemporal residual. The mean structure was derived from a large set of geographic covariates that was reduced using partial least-squares regression. We estimated time trends from observed time series and used spatial smoothing methods to borrow strength between observations. Results: Prediction accuracy was high for most models, with cross-validation R2 (R2CV ) > 0.80 at regulatory and fixed sites for most regions and pollutants. At home sites, overall R2CV ranged from 0.45 to 0.92, and temporally adjusted R2CV ranged from 0.23 to 0.92. Conclusions: This novel spatiotemporal modeling approach provides accurate fine-scale predictions in multiple regions for four pollutants. We have generated participant-specific predictions for MESA Air to investigate health effects of long-term air pollution exposures. These successes highlight modeling advances that can be adopted more widely in modern cohort studies. Citation: Keller JP, Olives C, Kim SY, Sheppard L, Sampson PD, Szpiro AA, Oron AP, Lindström J, Vedal S, Kaufman JD. 2015. A unified spatiotemporal modeling approach for predicting concentrations of multiple air pollutants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution. Environ Health Perspect 123:301-309; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408145 pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: equations & formulas pictorial research tables/charts Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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