Estimating the measles effective reproduction number in Australia from routine notification data.
Objective To estimate the measles effective reproduction number (R) in Australia by modelling routinely collected notification data. Methods R was estimated for 2009-2011 by means of three methods, using data from Australia's National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Method 1 estimated R as 1...
| Publicado en: | Bulletin of the World Health Organization Vol. 92; no. 3; pp. 171 - 178 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
| Formato: | research tables/charts Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
World Health Organization
Mar2014
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=104042236&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 104042236 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 00429686 BUW jtl: Bulletin of the World Health Organization issn: 00429686 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Mar2014 vid: 92 iid: 3 pid: 437 pub: World Health Organization artinfo: ui: 104042236 94780253 10.2471/BLT.13.125724 104042236 ppf: 171 ppct: 7 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P tig: atl: Estimating the measles effective reproduction number in Australia from routine notification data. aug: au: May Chiew Gidding, Heather F. Dey, Aditi Wood, James Martin, Nicolee Davis, Stephanie McIntyre, Peter affil: National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance of Vaccine Preventable Diseases, The Children¿s Hospital Westmead, Sydney, Australia. sug: subj: Measles Epidemiology Disease Surveillance Methods Disease Outbreaks Australia Human Funding Source Australia Data Analysis Software Confidence Intervals Epidemiological Research Descriptive Statistics Child Adolescence Adult Infection Control Child: 6-12 years Adolescent: 13-18 years Adult: 19-44 years ab: Objective To estimate the measles effective reproduction number (R) in Australia by modelling routinely collected notification data. Methods R was estimated for 2009-2011 by means of three methods, using data from Australia's National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Method 1 estimated R as 1 ? P, where P equals the proportion of cases that were imported, as determined from data on place of acquisition. The other methods estimated R by fitting a subcritical branching process that modelled the spread of an infection with a given R to the observed distributions of outbreak sizes (method 2) and generations of spread (method 3). Stata version 12 was used for method 2 and Matlab version R2012 was used for method 3. For all methods, calculation of 95% confidence intervals (CIs) was performed using a normal approximation based on estimated standard errors. Findings During 2009-2011, 367 notifiable measles cases occurred in Australia (mean annual rate: 5.5 cases per million population). Data were 100% complete for importation status but 77% complete for outbreak reference number. R was estimated as < 1 for all years and data types, with values of 0.65 (95% CI: 0.60-0.70) obtained by method 1, 0.64 (95% CI: 0.56-0.72) by method 2 and 0.47 (95% CI: 0.38-0.57) by method 3. Conclusion The fact that consistent estimates of R were obtained from all three methods enhances confidence in the validity of these methods for determining R. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: research tables/charts Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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