Population forecasts for Bangladesh, using a Bayesian methodology.
Population projection for many developing countries could be quite a challenging task for the demographers mostly due to lack of availability of enough reliable data. The objective of this paper is to present an overview of the existing methods for population forecasting and to propose an alternativ...
| Publicado en: | Journal of Health, Population & Nutrition Vol. 30; no. 4; pp. 456 - 464 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , |
| Formato: | research Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
BioMed Central
Dec2012
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=104296340&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 104296340 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 16060997 HII jtl: Journal of Health, Population & Nutrition issn: 16060997 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Dec2012 vid: 30 iid: 4 pid: 24147 pub: BioMed Central artinfo: ui: 104296340 104296340 NLM23304912 2011905141 NLM23304912 104296340 ppf: 456 ppct: 8 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P tig: atl: Population forecasts for Bangladesh, using a Bayesian methodology. aug: au: Mahsin M Hossain SS Mahsin, Md Hossain, Syed Shahadat affil: Institute of Statistical Research and Training, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh sug: subj: Probability Models, Statistical Demography Survival Analysis Methods Survival Analysis Bangladesh Birth Rate Emigration and Immigration Female Forecasting Human Logistic Regression Male Systems Analysis Mortality Chaos Theory Female Male ab: Population projection for many developing countries could be quite a challenging task for the demographers mostly due to lack of availability of enough reliable data. The objective of this paper is to present an overview of the existing methods for population forecasting and to propose an alternative based on the Bayesian statistics, combining the formality of inference. The analysis has been made using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique for Bayesian methodology available with the software WinBUGS. Convergence diagnostic techniques available with the WinBUGS software have been applied to ensure the convergence of the chains necessary for the implementation of MCMC. The Bayesian approach allows for the use of observed data and expert judgements by means of appropriate priors, and a more realistic population forecasts, along with associated uncertainty, has been possible. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: research Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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