Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions.
Background: Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still ha...
| Publicado en: | Environmental Health Perspectives Vol. 120; no. 11; pp. 1559 - 1565 |
|---|---|
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , |
| Formato: | equations & formulas research tables/charts Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
Nov2012
|
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=104442358&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 104442358 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 00916765 3B5 jtl: Environmental Health Perspectives issn: 00916765 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Nov2012 vid: 120 iid: 11 pid: 56539 pub: National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences place: Research Triangle Park, North Carolina artinfo: ui: 104442358 83646614 10.1289/ehp.1104271 NLM22796531 104442358 ppf: 1559 ppct: 6 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P tig: atl: Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions. aug: au: Post, Ellen S. Grambsch, Anne Weaver, Chris Morefield, Philip Jin Huang Lai-Yung Leung Nolte, Christopher G. Adams, Peter Xin-Zhong Liang Jin-Hong Zhu Mahoney, Hardee affil: Environment and Resources Division, Abt Associates Inc., Bethesda, Maryland, USA sug: subj: Climate Greenhouse Effect Ozone Health Air Pollution Mortality Risk Assessment Funding Source Data Analysis Software United States Simulations Models, Theoretical Population Analysis of Variance Descriptive Statistics Age Factors Geographic Locations ab: Background: Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices. Objectives: Our goal was to assess the sensitivity of estimated ozone-related human health impacts of climate change to key modeling choices. Methods: Our analysis included seven modeling systems in which a climate change model is linked to an air quality model, five population projections, and multiple concentration-response functions. Using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), we estimated future ozone (O3)-related health effects in the United States attributable to simulated climate change between the years 2000 and approximately 2050, given each combination of modeling choices. Health effects and concentration-response functions were chosen to match those used in the U.S. EPA's 2008 Regulatory Impact Analysis of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O3. Results: Different combinations of methodological choices produced a range of estimates of national O3-related mortality from roughly 600 deaths avoided as a result of climate change to 2,500 deaths attributable to climate change (although the large majority produced increases in mortality). The choice of the climate change and the air quality model reflected the greatest source of uncertainty, with the other modeling choices having lesser but still substantial effects. Conclusions: Our results highlight the need to use an ensemble approach, instead of relying on any one set of modeling choices, to assess the potential risks associated with O3-related human health effects resulting from climate change. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: equations & formulas research tables/charts Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
|---|