Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Undernutrition: Development of a Model to Quantify the Impact of Climate Scenarios on Child Undernutrition.
BACKGROUND: Global climate change is anticipated to reduce future cereal yields and threaten food security, thus potentially increasing the risk of undernutrition. The causation of undernutrition is complex, and there is a need to develop models that better quantify the potential impacts of climate...
| Publicado en: | Environmental Health Perspectives Vol. 119; no. 12; pp. 1817 - 1824 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | equations & formulas research tables/charts Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
Dec2011
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=104513038&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 104513038 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 00916765 3B5 jtl: Environmental Health Perspectives issn: 00916765 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Dec2011 vid: 119 iid: 12 pid: 56539 pub: National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences place: Research Triangle Park, North Carolina artinfo: ui: 104513038 70983480 10.1289/ehp.1003311 NLM21844000 PMC3261974 104513038 ppf: 1817 ppct: 7 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P tig: atl: Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Undernutrition: Development of a Model to Quantify the Impact of Climate Scenarios on Child Undernutrition. aug: au: Lloyd, Simon J. Kovats, R. Sari Chalabi, Zaid affil: Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom sug: subj: Climate Malnutrition Epidemiology Models, Theoretical Food Security Child Nutrition Disorders Epidemiology Climate Change Human Asia Africa South of the Sahara Agriculture Forecasting Child Development Child, Preschool Socioeconomic Factors Descriptive Statistics Funding Source Child, Preschool: 2-5 years ab: BACKGROUND: Global climate change is anticipated to reduce future cereal yields and threaten food security, thus potentially increasing the risk of undernutrition. The causation of undernutrition is complex, and there is a need to develop models that better quantify the potential impacts of climate change on population health. OBJECTIVES: We developed a model for estimating future undernutrition that accounts for food and nonfood (socioeconomic) causes and can be linked to available regional scenario data. We estimated child stunting attributable to climate change in five regions in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2050. METHODS: We used current national food availability and undernutrition data to parameterize and validate a global model, using a process-driven approach based on estimations of the physiological relationship between a lack of food and stunting. We estimated stunting in 2050 using published modeled national calorie availability under two climate scenarios and a reference scenario (no climate change). RESULTS: We estimated that climate change will lead to a relative increase in moderate stunting of 1-29% in 2050 compared with a future without climate change. Climate change will have a greater impact on rates of severe stunting, which we estimated will increase by 23% (central SSA) to 62% (South Asia). CONCLUSIONS: Climate change is likely to impair future efforts to reduce child malnutrition in South Asia and SSA, even when economic growth is taken into account. Our model suggests that to reduce and prevent future undernutrition, it is necessary to both increase food access and improve socioeconomic conditions, as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: equations & formulas research tables/charts Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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