Population-based simulations of influenza pandemics: validity and significance for public health policy.
Objective To examine the validity and usefulness of pandemic simulations aimed at informing practical decision-making in public health. Methods We recruited a multidisciplinary group of nine experts to assess a case-study simulation of influenza transmission in a Swedish county. We used a non-statis...
| Publicado en: | Bulletin of the World Health Organization Vol. 87; no. 4; pp. 305 - 312 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
| Formato: | research tables/charts Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
World Health Organization
Apr2009
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=105512226&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 105512226 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 00429686 BUW jtl: Bulletin of the World Health Organization issn: 00429686 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Apr2009 vid: 87 iid: 4 pid: 437 pub: World Health Organization artinfo: ui: 105512226 105512226 2010260581 10.2471/blt.07.050203 NLM19551239 105512226 ppf: 305 ppct: 7 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P tig: atl: Population-based simulations of influenza pandemics: validity and significance for public health policy. aug: au: Timpka T Eriksson H Gursky EA Nyce JM Morin M Jenvald J Strömgren M Holm E Ekberg J affil: Department of Medical and Health Sciences, Linköpings universitet, SE-581 83 Linköping, Sweden; tti@ida.liu.se sug: subj: Disease Surveillance Health Policy Trends Influenza Epidemiology Case Studies Forecasting Funding Source Influenza Vaccine Administration and Dosage Simulations Sweden Human ab: Objective To examine the validity and usefulness of pandemic simulations aimed at informing practical decision-making in public health. Methods We recruited a multidisciplinary group of nine experts to assess a case-study simulation of influenza transmission in a Swedish county. We used a non-statistical nominal group technique to generate evaluations of the plausibility, formal validity (verification) and predictive validity of the simulation. A health-effect assessment structure was used as a framework for data collection. Findings The unpredictability of social order during disasters was not adequately addressed by simulation methods; even minor disruptions of the social order may invalidate key infrastructural assumptions underpinning current pandemic simulation models. Further, a direct relationship between model flexibility and computation time was noted. Consequently, simulation methods cannot, in practice, support integrated modifications of microbiological, epidemiological and spatial submodels or handle multiple parallel scenarios. Conclusion The combination of incomplete surveillance data and simulation methods that neglect social dynamics limits the ability of national public health agencies to provide policy-makers and the general public with the critical and timely information needed during a pandemic. Copyright © 2009 World Health Organization pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: research tables/charts Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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