Estimating regression to the mean and true effects of an intervention in a four-wave panel study.

OBJECTIVES: First, to analyse whether a taxation-related decrease in spirit prices had a similar effect on spirit consumption for low-, medium- and high-level drinkers. Secondly, as the relationship between baseline values and post-intervention changes is confounded with regression to the mean (RTM)...

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Publicado en:Addiction Vol. 103; no. 1; pp. 32 - 42
Autores principales: Gmel G, Wicki M, Rehm J, Heeb J
Formato: equations & formulas research tables/charts Journal Article
Publicado: Wiley-Blackwell Jan2008
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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      dt: Jan2008
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      pub: Wiley-Blackwell
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        10.1111/j.1360-0443.2007.02034.x
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        atl: Estimating regression to the mean and true effects of an intervention in a four-wave panel study.
      aug:
        au:
          Gmel G
          Wicki M
          Rehm J
          Heeb J
        affil: Swiss Institute for the Prevention of Alcohol and Drug Problems (SIPA), Research Department, Lausanne, Switzerland; Alcohol Treatment Center, University Hospital Lausanne, Switzerland; and Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), Toronto, Canada.
      sug:
        subj:
          Alcohol Drinking Epidemiology
          Alcohol Drinking Prevention and Control
          Alcoholic Beverages Economics
          Taxes Economics
          Alcohol Drinking Trends
          Correlational Studies
          Epidemiological Research
          Female
          Funding Source
          Male
          Models, Statistical
          Regression
          Switzerland
          Human
          Female
          Male
      ab: OBJECTIVES: First, to analyse whether a taxation-related decrease in spirit prices had a similar effect on spirit consumption for low-, medium- and high-level drinkers. Secondly, as the relationship between baseline values and post-intervention changes is confounded with regression to the mean (RTM) effects, to apply different approaches for estimating the RTM effect and true change. SAMPLE: Consumption of spirits and total alcohol consumption were analysed in a four-wave panel study (one pre-intervention and three post-intervention measurements) of 889 alcohol consumers sampled from the general population of Switzerland. METHODS: Two correlational methods, one method quantitatively estimating the RTM effect and one growth curve approach based on hierarchical linear models (HLM), were used to estimate RTM effects among low-, medium- and high-level drinkers. RESULTS: Adjusted for RTM effects, high-level drinkers increased consumption more than lighter drinkers in the short term, but this was not a persisting effect. Changes in taxation affected mainly light and moderate drinkers in the long term. All methods concurred that RTM effects were present to a considerable degree, and methods quantifying the RTM effect or adjusting for it yielded similar estimates. CONCLUSION: Intervention studies have to consider RTM effects both in the study design and in the evaluation methods. Observed changes can be adjusted for RTM effects and true change can be estimated. The recommended method, particularly if the aim is to estimate change not only for the sample as a whole, but for groups of drinkers with different baseline consumption levels, is growth curve modelling. If reliability of measurement instruments cannot be increased, the incorporation of more than one pre-intervention measurement point may be a valuable adjustment of the study design.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype:
        equations & formulas
        research
        tables/charts
        Journal Article
      ougenre: Article
    language: English
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