Probabilistic forecasting using stochastic diffusion models, with applications to cohort processes of marriage and fertility.

In this article, we show how stochastic diffusion models can be used to forecast demographic cohort processes using the Hernes, Gompertz, and logistic models. Such models have been used deterministically in the past, but both behavioral theory and forecast utility are improved by introducing randomn...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Publicado en:Demography (Springer Nature) Vol. 50; no. 1; pp. 237 - 261
Autores principales: Myrskylä M, Goldstein JR, Myrskylä, Mikko, Goldstein, Joshua R
Formato: Journal Article
Publicado: Springer Nature Feb2013
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost