Spatial Models for Prediction and Early Warning of Aedes aegypti Proliferation from Data on Climate Change Variability in Cuba.
INTRODUCTION Climate variability, the primary expression of climate change, is one of the most important environmental problems affecting human health, particularly vector-borne diseases. Despite research efforts worldwide, there are few studies addressing the use of information on climate variabili...
| Publicado en: | MEDICC Review Vol. 17; no. 2; pp. 20 - 29 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , , |
| Formato: | equations & formulas pictorial research tables/charts Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
Medical Education Cooperation with Cuba
Apr2015
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=109808364&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 109808364 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 15273172 903V jtl: MEDICC Review issn: 15273172 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Apr2015 vid: 17 iid: 2 pid: 54282 pub: Medical Education Cooperation with Cuba place: Oakland, California artinfo: ui: 109808364 103399914 10.37757/mr2015.v17.n2.6 109808364 ppf: 20 ppct: 9 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P tig: atl: Spatial Models for Prediction and Early Warning of Aedes aegypti Proliferation from Data on Climate Change Variability in Cuba. aug: au: Ortiz, Paulo L. Rivero, Alina Linares, Yazenia Pérez, Alina Vázquez, Juan R. affil: Senior researcher, Climate Center (CENCLIM), Meteorology Institute, Havana, Cuba sug: subj: Greenhouse Effect Mosquitoes Cuba Models, Statistical Climate Change Cuba Computer Simulation Ecological Research Maps Disease Vectors Retrospective Design Prospective Studies ab: INTRODUCTION Climate variability, the primary expression of climate change, is one of the most important environmental problems affecting human health, particularly vector-borne diseases. Despite research efforts worldwide, there are few studies addressing the use of information on climate variability for prevention and early warning of vector-borne infectious diseases. OBJECTIVE Show the utility of climate information for vector surveillance by developing spatial models using an entomological indicator and information on predicted climate variability in Cuba to provide early warning of danger of increased risk of dengue transmission. METHOD An ecological study was carried out using retrospective and prospective analyses of time series combined with spatial statistics. Several entomological and climatic indicators were considered using complex Bultó indices -1 and -2. Moran's I spatial autocorrelation coefficient specified for a matrix of neighbors with a radius of 20 km, was used to identify the spatial structure. Spatial structure simulation was based on simultaneous autoregressive and conditional autoregressive models; agreement between predicted and observed values for number of Aedes aegypti foci was determined by the concordance index Di and skill factor Bi. RESULTS Spatial and temporal distributions of populations of Aedes aegypti were obtained. Models for describing, simulating and predicting spatial patterns of Aedes aegypti populations associated with climate variability patterns were put forward. The ranges of climate variability affecting Aedes aegypti populations were identified. Forecast maps were generated for the municipal level. CONCLUSIONS Using the Bultó indices of climate variability, it is possible to construct spatial models for predicting increased Aedes aegypti populations in Cuba. At 20 x 20 km resolution, the models are able to provide warning of potential changes in vector populations in rainy and dry seasons and by month, thus demonstrating the usefulness of climate information for epidemiological surveillance. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: equations & formulas pictorial research tables/charts Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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