Space-Time Covariation of Mortality with Temperature: A Systematic Study of Deaths in France, 1968-2009.
BACKGROUND: The temperature--mortality relationship has repeatedly been found, mostly in large cities, to be U/J-shaped, with higher minimum mortality temperature (MMT) at low latitudes being interpreted as indicating human adaptation to climate. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to partition space with a hig...
| Publicado en: | Environmental Health Perspectives Vol. 123; no. 7; pp. 659 - 665 |
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| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | equations & formulas pictorial research tables/charts Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
Jul2015
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=109812698&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 109812698 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 00916765 3B5 jtl: Environmental Health Perspectives issn: 00916765 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Jul2015 vid: 123 iid: 7 pid: 56539 pub: National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences place: Research Triangle Park, North Carolina artinfo: ui: 109812698 103609885 10.1289/ehp.1307771 NLM25803836 109812698 ppf: 659 ppct: 6 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P tig: atl: Space-Time Covariation of Mortality with Temperature: A Systematic Study of Deaths in France, 1968-2009. aug: au: Todd, Nicolas Valleron, Alain-Jacques affil: U1169, INSERM (Institut national de la santé et de la recherche médicale), Le Kremlin-Bicêtre, France sug: subj: Temperature Adverse Effects Mortality Epidemiology Time Factors Human France Aged Descriptive Statistics Adult Middle Age Infant, Newborn Data Analysis Software Poisson Distribution Regression Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test Confidence Intervals Unemployment Climate Pearson's Correlation Coefficient Funding Source Aged: 65+ years Adult: 19-44 years Middle Aged: 45-64 years Infant, Newborn: birth-1 month ab: BACKGROUND: The temperature--mortality relationship has repeatedly been found, mostly in large cities, to be U/J-shaped, with higher minimum mortality temperature (MMT) at low latitudes being interpreted as indicating human adaptation to climate. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to partition space with a high-resolution grid to assess the temperature-mortality relationship in a territory with wide climate diversity, over a period with notable climate warming. METHODS: The 16,487,668 death certificates of persons > 65 years of age who died of natural causes in continental France (1968-2009) were analyzed. A 30-km x 30-km grid was placed over the map of France. Generalized additive model regression was used to assess the temperature--mortality relationship for each grid square, and extract the MMT and the RM25 and RM25/18 (respectively, the ratios of mortality at 25°C/MMT and 25°C/18°C). Three periods were considered: 1968-1981 (P1), 1982-1995 (P2), and 1996-2009 (P3). RESULTS: All temperature--mortality curves computed over the 42-year period were U/J-shaped. MMT and mean summer temperature were strongly correlated. Mean MMT increased from 17.5°C for P1 to 17.8°C for P2 and to 18.2°C for P3 and paralleled the summer temperature increase observed between P1 and P3. The temporal MMT rise was below that expected from the geographic analysis. The RM25/18 ratio of mortality at 25°C versus that at 18°C declined significantly (p = 5 x 10-5) as warming increased: 18% for P1, 16% for P2, and 15% for P3. CONCLUSIONS: Results of this spatiotemporal analysis indicated some human adaptation to climate change, even in rural areas. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: equations & formulas pictorial research tables/charts Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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