Transition probabilities for four states of alcohol use in adolescence and young adulthood: what factors matter when?

Background and Aims Risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD) is a health threat, particularly at younger ages. The study aimed to quantify transition probabilities (TPs) between abstinence, use of alcohol, RSOD and frequent RSOD, and to understand how TPs are associated with key demographic factors. De...

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Publicado en:Addiction Vol. 110; no. 8; pp. 1272 - 1281
Autores principales: Probst, Charlotte, Moyo, Daniel, Purshouse, Robin, Rehm, Jürgen
Formato: research tables/charts Journal Article
Publicado: Wiley-Blackwell Aug2015
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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      dt: Aug2015
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      pub: Wiley-Blackwell
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        atl: Transition probabilities for four states of alcohol use in adolescence and young adulthood: what factors matter when?
      aug:
        au:
          Probst, Charlotte
          Moyo, Daniel
          Purshouse, Robin
          Rehm, Jürgen
        affil: Institute for Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy, Technische Universität Dresden; Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), Social and Epidemiological Research Department
      sug:
        subj:
          Alcohol Drinking
          Alcohol Abuse Psychosocial Factors
          Human
          Male
          Female
          Descriptive Statistics
          Data Analysis Software
          Confidence Intervals
          Odds Ratio
          Chi Square Test
          Models, Theoretical
          Computer Simulation
          Funding Source
          Male
          Female
      ab: Background and Aims Risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD) is a health threat, particularly at younger ages. The study aimed to quantify transition probabilities (TPs) between abstinence, use of alcohol, RSOD and frequent RSOD, and to understand how TPs are associated with key demographic factors. Design Cohort study (baseline, two follow-ups). A Markov model was fitted to estimate annual TPs and hazard ratios (HRs) for age, sex and socio-economic status (SES). Setting Adolescent and young adult general population of Munich (Germany) and surrounding areas. Participants A total of 3021 people aged 14-25 years at baseline in 1995 followed-up in 1998/1999 ( n = 2548) and 2003-2005 ( n = 2210). Measurements Alcohol use, RSOD status, age, sex and SES (subjective financial situation) were assessed in a standardized interview. Findings The highest TPs (> 65%) were found for staying in the same drinking state. Higher age [hazard ratio (HR) for 1-year increase = 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.84-0.91], being female (HR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.21-0.42), and a high SES (HR = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.43-0.97) were associated with a lower hazard to progress from use to RSOD. While age was associated predominantly with transitions between abstinence and alcohol use, sex was more relevant for transitions associated with RSOD and frequent RSOD. Conclusions German adolescents and young adults tend to be stable in the drinking states of abstinence, use of alcohol, risky single-occasion drinking and frequent risky single-occasion drinking. Females are less likely to transition to riskier states and more likely to transition back from frequent risky single-occasion drinking, higher age is associated with lower hazard of transitioning and participants of higher socio-economic status are less likely to transition from 'use of alcohol' to 'risky single-occasion drinking'.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype:
        research
        tables/charts
        Journal Article
      ougenre: Article
    language: English
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