| Sumario: | This article presents analysis of and predictions for the struggling technology industry. Technology vendors, investors and analysts have been poring over data with a magnifying glass lately to find signs of a recovery. But the data are inconclusive. One index of expected tech spending by American firms pointed up in June, less up in July, and even less up in August. Tech firms are also sending mixed signals.The big picture does suggest that American companies are now planning to spend a bit more again. Andrew Bartels, an analyst at Giga Research, an IT consultancy, estimates that tech spending will rise by about 2% this year and that investment in new technology (excluding salaries for IT staff and fees to consultants) should grow by around 6% annually for the next four years. Steven Milunovich, an analyst at Merrill Lynch, thinks that the tech industry evolves through waves lasting 10-15 years, as innovation leads to a burst of spending on new technologies, then to a less exciting period of assimilation. In March, Forrester, an IT consultancy, found that 72% of corporate IT managers were intending to move their server-computers to Linux from Microsoft and Unix software.
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