Probability and Manipulation: Evolution and Simulation in Applied Population Genetics.

I define a concept of causal probability and apply it to questions about the role of probability in evolutionary processes. Causal probability is defined in terms of manipulation of patterns in empirical outcomes by manipulating properties that realize objective probabilities. The concept of causal...

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Published in:Erkenntnis Vol. 80; pp. 519 - 550
Main Author: Abrams, Marshall
Format: Article
Published: Springer Nature Dec2015 Supplement
Subjects:
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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        10.1007/s10670-015-9784-4
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        au: Abrams, Marshall
        affil: Department of Philosophy, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham USA
      su:
        Probability theory
        Population genetics
        Computer simulation
        Biological evolution
        Biological fitness
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        subj:
          Probability theory
          Population genetics
          Computer simulation
          Biological evolution
          Biological fitness
      ab: I define a concept of causal probability and apply it to questions about the role of probability in evolutionary processes. Causal probability is defined in terms of manipulation of patterns in empirical outcomes by manipulating properties that realize objective probabilities. The concept of causal probability allows us see how probabilities characterized by different interpretations of probability can share a similar causal character, and does so in such way as to allow new inferences about relationships between probabilities realized in different chance setups. I clarify relations between probabilities and properties defined in terms of them, and argue that certain widespread uses of computer simulations in evolutionary biology show that many probabilities relevant to evolutionary outcomes are causal probabilities. This supports the claim that higher-level properties such as biological fitness and processes such as natural selection are causal properties and processes, contrary to what some authors have argued.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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      custom: Erkenntnis is a copyright of Springer, 2015. All Rights Reserved.
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