Opinion Polling and Election Predictions.

Election prediction by means of opinion polling is a rare empirical success story for social science. I examine the details of a prominent case, drawing two lessons of more general interest: (1) Methodology over metaphysics. Traditional metaphysical criteria were not a useful guide to whether succes...

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Bibliographic Details

Published in:	Philosophy of Science Vol. 82; no. 5; pp. 1260 - 1272
Main Author:	Northcott, Robert
Format:	Article
Published:	Cambridge University Press Dec2015
Subjects:	Public opinion polls Election forecasting Social theory Metaphysics Causation (Philosophy) Mechanism (Philosophy)
Online Access:	View this record in EBSCOhost