Anomalies in the detection of change: When changes in sample size are mistaken for changes in proportions.
Detecting changes, in performance, sales, markets, risks, social relations, or public opinions, constitutes an important adaptive function. In a sequential paradigm devised to investigate detection of change, every trial provides a sample of binary outcomes (e.g., correct vs. incorrect student respo...
| Publicado en: | Memory & Cognition Vol. 44; no. 1; pp. 143 - 162 |
|---|---|
| Autores principales: | , , , , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
| Publicado: |
Springer Nature
Jan2016
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=112404441&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 112404441 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 0090502X MEG jtl: Memory & Cognition issn: 0090502X maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Jan2016 vid: 44 iid: 1 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature artinfo: ui: 112404441 10.3758/s13421-015-0537-z ppf: 143 ppct: 19 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P size: 874KB tig: atl: Anomalies in the detection of change: When changes in sample size are mistaken for changes in proportions. aug: au: Fiedler, Klaus Kareev, Yaakov Avrahami, Judith Beier, Susanne Kutzner, Florian Hütter, Mandy affil: University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg Germany Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem Israel su: Decision making Judgment (Psychology) Memory Sample size (Statistics) sug: subj: Decision making Judgment (Psychology) Memory Sample size (Statistics) keyword: Inductive reasoning Judgment Inductive reasoning Judgment ab: Detecting changes, in performance, sales, markets, risks, social relations, or public opinions, constitutes an important adaptive function. In a sequential paradigm devised to investigate detection of change, every trial provides a sample of binary outcomes (e.g., correct vs. incorrect student responses). Participants have to decide whether the proportion of a focal feature (e.g., correct responses) in the population from which the sample is drawn has decreased, remained constant, or increased. Strong and persistent anomalies in change detection arise when changes in proportional quantities vary orthogonally to changes in absolute sample size. Proportional increases are readily detected and nonchanges are erroneously perceived as increases when absolute sample size increases. Conversely, decreasing sample size facilitates the correct detection of proportional decreases and the erroneous perception of nonchanges as decreases. These anomalies are however confined to experienced samples of elementary raw events from which proportions have to be inferred inductively. They disappear when sample proportions are described as percentages in a normalized probability format. To explain these challenging findings, it is essential to understand the inductive-learning constraints imposed on decisions from experience. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
|---|