FIELDWORK IN THE NEW JERSEY ELECTION PREDICTION.
The errors recorded by most public opinion polls in reporting the recent election clearly indicate the need for a reexamination of procedures. Accurate measurements of public opinion on any issue depend on several factors: preparation of a valid cross-section of the universe to be studied; the best...
| Publicado en: | Public Opinion Quarterly Vol. 12; no. 4; pp. 724 - 727 |
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| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Oxford University Press / USA
Winter48/49
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=11926141&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 11926141 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 0033362X POQ jtl: Public Opinion Quarterly issn: 0033362X maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Winter48/49 vid: 12 iid: 4 pid: 622 pub: Oxford University Press / USA artinfo: ui: 11926141 10.1086/266019 ppf: 724 ppct: 3 formats: tig: atl: FIELDWORK IN THE NEW JERSEY ELECTION PREDICTION. aug: au: Fink, Kenneth Lutz, Robert G. affil: Princeton Research Service. su: Forecasting Public opinion polls Political campaigns Field research Public opinion Interviewing Voting Political candidates New Jersey United States sug: subj: New Jersey United States Forecasting Public opinion polls Political campaigns Field research Public opinion Interviewing Voting Political candidates ab: The errors recorded by most public opinion polls in reporting the recent election clearly indicate the need for a reexamination of procedures. Accurate measurements of public opinion on any issue depend on several factors: preparation of a valid cross-section of the universe to be studied; the best possible fieldwork to insure that the cross-section is actually obtained; and correct timing. Of these three factors, careful fieldwork is the most difficult to secure and too often has received the least attention. In this connection the New Jersey Poll interviewing methods may highlight the importance of fieldwork in political forecasting and, for that matter, in all opinion research. The New Jersey Poll made predictions covering six candidates in New Jersey. All predictions were correct as to winners and standings. Definite reasons lie behind the employment of these techniques adopted for the opinion polls conducted in New Jersey. Each attacks a potential source of error which in most cases is likely to give a Republican bias on election forecasts. The irreducible statistical error is already of sufficient size to make predictions of close elections somewhat hazardous; therefore, every effort must be made to reduce the error subject to control. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y dt: @attributes: year: 1948 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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