The Diversity of Model Tuning Practices in Climate Science.
Many examples of calibration in climate science raise no alarms regarding model reliability. We examine one example and show that, in employing classical hypothesis testing, it involves calibrating a base model against data that are also used to confirm the model. This is counter to the ‘intuitive p...
| Publicado en: | Philosophy of Science Vol. 83; no. 5; pp. 1133 - 1145 |
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| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Cambridge University Press
Dec2016
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=119504827&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 119504827 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00318248 PSC jtl: Philosophy of Science issn: 00318248 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Dec2016 vid: 83 iid: 5 pid: 15979 pub: Cambridge University Press artinfo: ui: 119504827 10.1086/687944 ppf: 1133 ppct: 12 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 361KB tig: atl: The Diversity of Model Tuning Practices in Climate Science. aug: au: Steele, Katie Werndl, Charlotte affil: We are grateful for valuable discussion and suggestions from the anonymous referees as well as to the audiences at the PSA 2014, the 2015 Philosophy of Climate Science Conference at the University of Pittsburgh, the Theory Construction in Science Conference at the London School of Economics, the Philosophy Colloquium at the University of Groningen, the Philosophy of Science Seminar at Bristol University, the Colloquium in Mathematical Philosophy at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy, the British Society for the Philosophy of Science Seminar, the 2014 Trends in Logic Workshop at Ghent University, and the Third Reasoning Club Conference at the University of Kent. Funding support for the research was provided by the Arts and Humanities Research Council and by the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. Katie Steele was also supported by a 3-month research fellowship in residence at the Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study. To contact the authors, please write to: Katie Steele, Australian National University su: Climatology Parameterization Climate change Surface temperature Statistical hypothesis testing sug: subj: Climatology Parameterization Climate change Surface temperature Statistical hypothesis testing ab: Many examples of calibration in climate science raise no alarms regarding model reliability. We examine one example and show that, in employing classical hypothesis testing, it involves calibrating a base model against data that are also used to confirm the model. This is counter to the ‘intuitive position’ (in favor of use novelty and against double counting). We argue, however, that aspects of the intuitive position are upheld by some methods, in particular, the general cross-validation method. How cross-validation relates to other prominent classical methods such as the Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion is also discussed. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y custom: Copyright of Philosophy of Science is the property of Cambridge University Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. item: Philosophy of Science holder: Cambridge University Press dt: @attributes: year: 2016 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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