ANIMAL SPIRITS, HETEROGENEOUS EXPECTATIONS, AND THE AMPLIFICATION AND DURATION OF CRISES.
We introduce a simple equilibrium model of a market for loans, where households lend to firms based on heterogeneous expectations about their loan default probability. Agents select endogenously among heterogeneous expectation rules, based upon their relative performance. Due to strong nonlinearitie...
| Publicado en: | Economic Inquiry Vol. 55; no. 1; pp. 542 - 565 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Wiley-Blackwell
Jan2017
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=119533474&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 119533474 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00952583 EIQ jtl: Economic Inquiry issn: 00952583 maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: Jan2017 vid: 55 iid: 1 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell artinfo: ui: 119533474 10.1111/ecin.12367 ppf: 542 ppct: 23 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 948KB tig: atl: ANIMAL SPIRITS, HETEROGENEOUS EXPECTATIONS, AND THE AMPLIFICATION AND DURATION OF CRISES. aug: au: Assenza, Tiziana Brock, William A. Hommes, Cars H. affil: Associate Professor, Complexity Lab in Economics (CLE), Department of Economics and Finance, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 20123, Milano Italy Amsterdam School of Economics, University of Amsterdam, CeNDEF, 1018 WB Amsterdam The Netherlands Professor Emeritus, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin at Madison, Madison WI 53706 Department of Economics, University of Missouri, Columbia, Columbia MO 65211 ‐ 6040 Full Professor, Amsterdam School of Economics, University of Amsterdam, CeNDEF, 1018 WB Amsterdam The Netherlands Tinbergen Institute, 1082 MS Amsterdam The Netherlands su: Financial crises Economic equilibrium Loans Economic recovery Economics Economic research sug: subj: Financial crises Economic equilibrium Loans Economic recovery Economics Research and Development in the Social Sciences and Humanities Consumer Lending Economic research ab: We introduce a simple equilibrium model of a market for loans, where households lend to firms based on heterogeneous expectations about their loan default probability. Agents select endogenously among heterogeneous expectation rules, based upon their relative performance. Due to strong nonlinearities, a small fraction of pessimistic traders already has a large aggregate effect, leading to a crisis characterized by high interest rates for loans and low output. Our stylized model illustrates how animal spirits and heterogeneous expectations and, in particular, how coordination on pessimistic expectations amplifies crises and slows down recovery. ( JEL E32, D83, D84) pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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