Estimating the Counterfactual: How Many Uninsured Adults Would There Be Today Without the ACA?
Time lags in receiving data from long-standing, large federal surveys complicate real-time estimation of the coverage effects of full Affordable Care Act (ACA) implementation. Fast-turnaround household surveys fill some of the void in data on recent changes to insurance coverage, but they lack the h...
| Publicado en: | Inquiry (00469580) Vol. 53; pp. 1 - 14 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Sage Publications Inc.
Jan-Dec2016
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=120161336&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 120161336 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00469580 INQ jtl: Inquiry (00469580) issn: 00469580 maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: Jan-Dec2016 vid: 53 pid: 344 pub: Sage Publications Inc. artinfo: ui: 120161336 10.1177/0046958016634991 ppf: 1 ppct: 13 formats: tig: atl: Estimating the Counterfactual: How Many Uninsured Adults Would There Be Today Without the ACA? aug: au: Blumberg, Linda J. Garrett, Bowen Holahan, John affil: Urban Institute, Washington, DC, USA su: Insurance Health care reform Medicaid Medically uninsured persons Research funding Statistics Government policy Data analysis Patient Protection & Affordable Care Act United States sug: subj: United States Insurance Health care reform Medicaid Medically uninsured persons Research funding Statistics Government policy Data analysis Patient Protection & Affordable Care Act keyword: ACA estimates forecast insurance coverage uninsured ab: Time lags in receiving data from long-standing, large federal surveys complicate real-time estimation of the coverage effects of full Affordable Care Act (ACA) implementation. Fast-turnaround household surveys fill some of the void in data on recent changes to insurance coverage, but they lack the historical data that allow analysts to account for trends that predate the ACA, economic fluctuations, and earlier public program expansions when predicting how many people would be uninsured without comprehensive health care reform. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) from 2000 to 2012 and the Health Reform Monitoring Survey (HRMS) data for 2013 and 2015, this article develops an approach to estimate the number of people who would be uninsured in the absence of the ACA and isolates the change in coverage as of March 2015 that can be attributed to the ACA. We produce counterfactual forecasts of the number of uninsured absent the ACA for 9 age-income groups and compare these estimates with 2015 estimates based on HRMS relative coverage changes applied to CPS-based population estimates. As of March 2015, we find the ACA has reduced the number of uninsured adults by 18.1 million compared with the number who would have been uninsured at that time had the law not been implemented. That decline represents a 46% reduction in the number of nonelderly adults without insurance. The approach developed here can be applied to other federal data and timely surveys to provide a range of estimates of the overall effects of reform. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y dt: @attributes: year: 2016 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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