Predicting coin flips: using resampling and hierarchical models to help untangle the NHL’s shoot-out.
Roughly 14% of regular season National Hockey League games since the 2005–06 season have been decided by a shoot-out, and the resulting allocation of points has impacted play-off races each season. But despite interest from fans, players and league officials, there is little in the way of published...
| Publicado en: | Journal of Sports Sciences Vol. 35; no. 9; pp. 888 - 898 |
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| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | equations & formulas research tables/charts Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
Taylor & Francis Ltd
May2017
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=121078470&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 121078470 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 02640414 5BV jtl: Journal of Sports Sciences issn: 02640414 maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: May2017 vid: 35 iid: 9 pid: 377 pub: Taylor & Francis Ltd place: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania artinfo: ui: 121078470 121078470 121078470 10.1080/02640414.2016.1198046 121078470 ppf: 888 ppct: 10 formats: tig: atl: Predicting coin flips: using resampling and hierarchical models to help untangle the NHL’s shoot-out. aug: au: Lopez, Michael J. Schuckers, Michael affil: Department of Mathematics, Skidmore College, Saratoga Springs, NY, USA sug: subj: Hockey Professional Sports Athletic Performance Human New York Selection Bias Forecasting Decision Making Mathematics Coaches, Athletic Models, Statistical Descriptive Statistics Data Analysis Software P-Value Databases Sports Organizations ab: Roughly 14% of regular season National Hockey League games since the 2005–06 season have been decided by a shoot-out, and the resulting allocation of points has impacted play-off races each season. But despite interest from fans, players and league officials, there is little in the way of published research on team or individual shoot-out performance. This manuscript attempts to fill that void. We present both generalised linear mixed model and Bayesian hierarchical model frameworks to model shoot-out outcomes, with results suggesting that there are (i) small but statistically significant talent gaps between shooters, (ii) marginal differences in performance among netminders and (iii) few, if any, predictors of player success after accounting for individual talent. We also provide a resampling strategy to highlight a selection bias with respect to shooter assignment, in which coaches choose their most skilled offensive players early in shoot-out rounds and are less likely to select players with poor past performances. Finally, given that per-shot data for shoot-outs do not currently exist in a single location for public use, we provide both our data and source code for other researchers interested in studying shoot-out outcomes. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: equations & formulas research tables/charts Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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