The no miracles argument and the base rate fallacy.
The no miracles argument is one of the main arguments for scientific realism. Recently it has been alleged that the no miracles argument is fundamentally flawed because it commits the base rate fallacy. The allegation is based on the idea that the appeal of the no miracles argument arises from inapp...
| Publicado en: | Synthese Vol. 194; no. 4; pp. 1295 - 1303 |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Artículo |
| Publicado: |
Springer Nature
Apr2017
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=122401642&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 122401642 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00397857 4LI jtl: Synthese issn: 00397857 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Apr2017 vid: 194 iid: 4 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature artinfo: ui: 122401642 10.1007/s11229-015-0995-7 ppf: 1295 ppct: 8 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P size: 358KB tig: atl: The no miracles argument and the base rate fallacy. aug: au: Henderson, Leah affil: University of Groningen , Groningen The Netherlands su: Miracles Miracle workers Miracles in literature Spiritual healing Realism sug: subj: Miracles Miracle workers Miracles in literature Spiritual healing Realism keyword: Base rate fallacy Base rate neglect No miracles argument Scientific realism ab: The no miracles argument is one of the main arguments for scientific realism. Recently it has been alleged that the no miracles argument is fundamentally flawed because it commits the base rate fallacy. The allegation is based on the idea that the appeal of the no miracles argument arises from inappropriate neglect of the base rate of approximate truth among the relevant population of theories. However, the base rate fallacy allegation relies on an assumption of random sampling of individuals from the population which cannot be made in the case of the no miracles argument. Therefore the base rate fallacy objection to the no miracles argument fails. I distinguish between a 'local' and a 'global' form of the no miracles argument. The base rate fallacy objection has been leveled at the local version. I argue that the global argument plays a key role in supporting a base-rate-fallacy-free formulation of the local version of the argument. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y custom: Synthese is a copyright of Springer, 2017. All Rights Reserved. item: Synthese holder: Springer Nature dt: @attributes: year: 2017 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
|---|