The no miracles argument and the base rate fallacy.

The no miracles argument is one of the main arguments for scientific realism. Recently it has been alleged that the no miracles argument is fundamentally flawed because it commits the base rate fallacy. The allegation is based on the idea that the appeal of the no miracles argument arises from inapp...

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Publicado en:Synthese Vol. 194; no. 4; pp. 1295 - 1303
Autor principal: Henderson, Leah
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Springer Nature Apr2017
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Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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        au: Henderson, Leah
        affil: University of Groningen , Groningen The Netherlands
      su:
        Miracles
        Miracle workers
        Miracles in literature
        Spiritual healing
        Realism
      sug:
        subj:
          Miracles
          Miracle workers
          Miracles in literature
          Spiritual healing
          Realism
      keyword:
        Base rate fallacy
        Base rate neglect
        No miracles argument
        Scientific realism
      ab: The no miracles argument is one of the main arguments for scientific realism. Recently it has been alleged that the no miracles argument is fundamentally flawed because it commits the base rate fallacy. The allegation is based on the idea that the appeal of the no miracles argument arises from inappropriate neglect of the base rate of approximate truth among the relevant population of theories. However, the base rate fallacy allegation relies on an assumption of random sampling of individuals from the population which cannot be made in the case of the no miracles argument. Therefore the base rate fallacy objection to the no miracles argument fails. I distinguish between a 'local' and a 'global' form of the no miracles argument. The base rate fallacy objection has been leveled at the local version. I argue that the global argument plays a key role in supporting a base-rate-fallacy-free formulation of the local version of the argument.
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