FORWARD GUIDANCE AND THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY.
This paper analyzes forward guidance in a nonlinear model with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate. Forward guidance is modeled with news shocks to the monetary policy rule, which capture innovations in expectations from central bank communication about future policy rates. Whereas...
| Publicado en: | Economic Inquiry Vol. 55; no. 4; pp. 1593 - 1625 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Wiley-Blackwell
Oct2017
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=124834505&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 124834505 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00952583 EIQ jtl: Economic Inquiry issn: 00952583 maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: Oct2017 vid: 55 iid: 4 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell artinfo: ui: 124834505 10.1111/ecin.12466 ppf: 1593 ppct: 32 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 1.7MB tig: atl: FORWARD GUIDANCE AND THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY. aug: au: Keen, Benjamin D. Richter, Alexander W. Throckmorton, Nathaniel A. affil: Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Oklahoma, Norman OK 73019 Senior Economist, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Auburn University, Dallas TX 75201 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg VA 23187 su: Recessions Households Nonlinear statistical models Monetary policy United States gross domestic product sug: subj: Recessions Households Private Households Nonlinear statistical models Monetary policy United States gross domestic product ab: This paper analyzes forward guidance in a nonlinear model with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate. Forward guidance is modeled with news shocks to the monetary policy rule, which capture innovations in expectations from central bank communication about future policy rates. Whereas most studies use quasi-linear models that disregard the expectational effects of hitting the ZLB, we show how the effectiveness of forward guidance nonlinearly depends on the state of the economy, the speed of the recovery, the degree of uncertainty, the policy shock size, and the forward guidance horizon when households account for the ZLB. ( JEL E43, E58, E61) pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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