Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach.
Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In pa...
| Publicado en: | Demography (Springer Nature) Vol. 54; no. 5; pp. 1921 - 1947 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | journal article |
| Publicado: |
Springer Nature
Oct2017
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=125425663&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 125425663 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00703370 DEM jtl: Demography (Springer Nature) issn: 00703370 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Oct2017 vid: 54 iid: 5 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature artinfo: ui: 125425663 10.1007/s13524-017-0610-2 ppf: 1921 ppct: 26 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P size: 936KB tig: atl: Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach. aug: au: Boonen, Tim Li, Hong Boonen, Tim J affil: Amsterdam School of Economics , University of Amsterdam , Roetersstraat 11 1018 WB Amsterdam The Netherlands School of Finance , Nankai University , Tongyan Road 38 300350 Tianjin People's Republic of China Amsterdam School of Economics, University of Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, 1018 WB, Amsterdam, The Netherlands su: Mortality Life expectancy Economic development Socioeconomics Gross domestic product sug: subj: Mortality Life expectancy Economic development Socioeconomics Gross domestic product keyword: Common mortality trend Economic growth Li-Lee model Mortality forecasting Common mortality trend Economic growth Li-Lee model Mortality forecasting ab: Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In particular, we extend the Li and Lee model (Li and Lee 2005) by including economic growth, represented by the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, to capture the common mortality trend for a group of populations with similar socioeconomic conditions. We find that our proposed model provides a better in-sample fit and an out-of-sample forecast performance. Moreover, it generates lower (higher) forecasted period life expectancy for countries with high (low) GDP per capita than the Li and Lee model. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: journal article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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