A Time Series Analysis of Associations between Daily Temperature and Crime Events in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Urban crime may be an important but overlooked public health impact of rising ambient temperatures. We conducted a time series analysis of associations between temperature and crimes in Philadelphia, PA, for years 2006-2015. We obtained daily crime data from the Philadelphia Police Department, and h...
| Publicado en: | Journal of Urban Health Vol. 94; no. 6; pp. 892 - 901 |
|---|---|
| Autores principales: | , , , |
| Formato: | journal article |
| Publicado: |
Springer Nature
Dec2017
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=126655189&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 126655189 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 10993460 GMF jtl: Journal of Urban Health issn: 10993460 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Dec2017 vid: 94 iid: 6 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature artinfo: ui: 126655189 10.1007/s11524-017-0181-y ppf: 892 ppct: 9 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P size: 1001KB tig: atl: A Time Series Analysis of Associations between Daily Temperature and Crime Events in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. aug: au: Schinasi, Leah Hamra, Ghassan Schinasi, Leah H Hamra, Ghassan B affil: Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, 3215 Market Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA Dornsife School of Public Health, Urban Health Collaborative, Drexel University, 3600 Market Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA su: Philadelphia (Pa.) Violent crimes Public health Epidemiology Time series analysis Urban temperature Atmospheric temperature Heat index sug: subj: Violent crimes Public health Epidemiology Philadelphia (Pa.) Health and Welfare Funds Time series analysis Urban temperature Atmospheric temperature Heat index keyword: Crime Generalized additive models Temperature Violence Violent crime Crime Generalized additive models Temperature Violence Violent crime ab: Urban crime may be an important but overlooked public health impact of rising ambient temperatures. We conducted a time series analysis of associations between temperature and crimes in Philadelphia, PA, for years 2006-2015. We obtained daily crime data from the Philadelphia Police Department, and hourly temperature and dew point data from the National Centers for Environmental Information. We calculated the mean daily heat index and daily deviations from each year's seasonal mean heat index value. We used generalized additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution, adjusted for day of the week, public holiday, and long-term trends and seasonality, to estimate relative rates (RR) and 95% confidence intervals. We found that the strongest associations were with violent crime and disorderly conduct. For example, relative to the median of the distribution of mean daily heat index values, the rate of violent crimes was 9% (95% CI 6-12%) higher when the mean daily heat index was at the 99th percentile of the distribution. There was a positive, linear relationship between deviations of the daily mean heat index from the seasonal mean and rates of violent crime and disorderly conduct, especially in cold months. Overall, these analyses suggest that disorderly conduct and violent crimes are highest when temperatures are comfortable, especially during cold months. This work provides important information regarding the temporal patterns of crime activity. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: journal article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
|---|