Crises and unpredictability in developing countries.
Developing countries have suffered most of the financial crises in the context of the process of economic and financial globalisation. Both current and previous crises have revealed that unpredictability is a feature common to all the episodes which occurred during the process of globalisation. Alth...
| Publicado en: | Third World Quarterly Vol. 39; no. 1; pp. 35 - 51 |
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| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
| Publicado: |
Taylor & Francis Ltd
Jan2018
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=127095326&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 127095326 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 01436597 TWQ jtl: Third World Quarterly issn: 01436597 maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: Jan2018 vid: 39 iid: 1 pid: 377 pub: Taylor & Francis Ltd artinfo: ui: 127095326 10.1080/01436597.2017.1368378 ppf: 35 ppct: 16 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T db: hlh ui: 127095326 – @attributes: type: P db: hlh ui: 127095326 tig: atl: Crises and unpredictability in developing countries. aug: au: San-Martín-Albizuri, Nerea Rodriguez-Castellanos, Arturo affil: Department of Financial Economic II, University of the Basque Country, Bilbao, Spain su: Financial crises Economic forecasting Public debts History Economic conditions in developing countries Financial globalization Risk Credit ratings sug: subj: Financial crises Economic forecasting Public debts History Credit Bureaus Public Finance Activities Economic conditions in developing countries Financial globalization Risk Credit ratings keyword: country risk indexes developing countries F36 financial crises forecast G01 Globalisation sovereign rating uncertainty country risk indexes developing countries F36 financial crises forecast G01 Globalisation sovereign rating uncertainty ab: Developing countries have suffered most of the financial crises in the context of the process of economic and financial globalisation. Both current and previous crises have revealed that unpredictability is a feature common to all the episodes which occurred during the process of globalisation. Although certain alarms went off, any of those external financial crises were actually predicted by the advanced methods in use for prediction and country risk analysis. Taking into consideration the information above, the aim of this paper is to check the ability to foresee external financial crises in developing countries of both the country risk index published by Euromoney and the Credit Ratings variable included therein. We have focused on the external financial crises that took place between 1992 and 2011, that is, in a full globalisation era. The results are negative. It appears that neither the index nor the sovereign ratings are able to reflect early enough the vulnerabilities that arise previously to the setting off the crisis episodes. This leads us to conclude that the existing models of country risk have limits. Thus, it would necessary to develop new instruments to measure this risk, considering uncertainty as an essential feature of the current economic and financial environment. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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