Whence the Beef: The Effect of Repealing Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) Using a Vertically Integrated Armington Model with Monte Carlo Simulation.

Increasingly, international trade policy analysis explores the economic effects of changes in ad‐valorem tariffs or equivalent nontariff measures on vertically integrated markets for which high quality data are unavailable. Standard Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) Armington models fail to...

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Publicado en:Southern Economic Journal Vol. 84; no. 3; pp. 879 - 898
Autores principales: Hallren, Ross, Opanasets, Alexandra
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Wiley-Blackwell Jan2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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      dt: Jan2018
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        atl: Whence the Beef: The Effect of Repealing Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) Using a Vertically Integrated Armington Model with Monte Carlo Simulation.
      aug:
        au:
          Hallren, Ross
          Opanasets, Alexandra
      su:
        United States
        World Trade Organization
        Tariff
        Beef industry
        Market share
        Monte Carlo method
      sug:
        subj:
          Tariff
          United States
          World Trade Organization
          Animal (except Poultry) Slaughtering
          Meat Processed from Carcasses
          Rendering and meat processing from carcasses
          Red meat and meat product merchant wholesalers
          Other federal government public administration
          Beef industry
          Market share
          Monte Carlo method
      keyword:
        C63
        F13
        F17
        C63
        F13
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      ab: Increasingly, international trade policy analysis explores the economic effects of changes in ad‐valorem tariffs or equivalent nontariff measures on vertically integrated markets for which high quality data are unavailable. Standard Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) Armington models fail to account for either vertical linkages or parameter uncertainty. Here, we introduce a vertically integrated, nested two‐sector Armington model that incorporates uncertainty in the estimates of Armington elasticities through Monte Carlo simulation. As an illustrative case, we model the effects of changes in country of origin labeling (COOL) rules on the market shares of cattle in the U.S. beef market. By accounting for parameter uncertainty in this way, we are able to estimate the distribution of potential effects of repealing mandatory COOL. Ultimately, we predict that, in all but the most extreme cases, Mexico and Canada would not gain as much market share from the repeal of mandatory COOL as they claim in their World Trade Organization (WTO) filings against the regulation.
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    language: English
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