House Price Momentum and Strategic Complementarity.

House prices exhibit substantially more momentum, positive autocorrelation in price changes, than existing theories can explain. I introduce an amplification mechanism to reconcile this discrepancy. Sellers do not set a unilaterally high or low list price because they face a concave demand curve: in...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Political Economy Vol. 126; no. 3; pp. 1172 - 1219
Main Author: Guren, Adam M.
Format: Article
Published: University of Chicago Press Jun2018
Subjects:
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
Description
Summary:House prices exhibit substantially more momentum, positive autocorrelation in price changes, than existing theories can explain. I introduce an amplification mechanism to reconcile this discrepancy. Sellers do not set a unilaterally high or low list price because they face a concave demand curve: increasing the price of an above-average-priced house rapidly reduces its sale probability, but cutting the price of a below-average-priced house only slightly improves its sale probability. The resulting strategic complementarity amplifies frictions because sellers gradually adjust their price to stay near average. I provide empirical evidence for concave demand using a quantitative search model that amplifies momentum two- to threefold.