DISSECTING THE MONTY HALL ANOMALY.
We assess competing explanations of irrational behavior in the Monty Hall problem by creating new variants of the problem. Some variants employ a feature that automates the merging of probabilities, thus rendering transparent the probabilistic advantage of the rational choice. That feature also enab...
| Publicado en: | Economic Inquiry Vol. 56; no. 3; pp. 1817 - 1827 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Wiley-Blackwell
Jul2018
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=129933573&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 129933573 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00952583 EIQ jtl: Economic Inquiry issn: 00952583 maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: Jul2018 vid: 56 iid: 3 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell artinfo: ui: 129933573 10.1111/ecin.12533 ppf: 1817 ppct: 10 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 135KB tig: atl: DISSECTING THE MONTY HALL ANOMALY. aug: au: James, Duncan Friedman, Daniel Louie, Christina O'Meara, Taylor affil: Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458 Distinguished Professor, Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95060 LEEPS Lab Research Assistant, Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95060 su: Rational choice theory Confirmation bias Monty Hall problem Bayesian analysis Information measurement sug: subj: Rational choice theory Confirmation bias Monty Hall problem Bayesian analysis Information measurement ab: We assess competing explanations of irrational behavior in the Monty Hall problem by creating new variants of the problem. Some variants employ a feature that automates the merging of probabilities, thus rendering transparent the probabilistic advantage of the rational choice. That feature also enables systematic variation in informational asymmetry, and in ordering of actions. Data from 77 subjects, each of whom makes 30 binary decisions, indicate that automated merging raises the fraction of rational choices from around 40% to over 80%. Other features examined have much less impact, indicating the importance of a Bayesian updating failure. (JEL C91, D02, D81, D83) pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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