The Political Geography of Rebellion: Using Event Data to Identify Insurgent Territory, Preferences, and Relocation Patterns.

The increasing availability of event data has led to a surge in micro-level research investigating civil war violence. Event data, however, introduces bias due to systemic underreporting of events. This study introduces a method that accounts for this bias by making a spatial prediction of unreporte...

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Published in:International Studies Quarterly Vol. 62; no. 3; pp. 696 - 708
Main Author: Reeder, Bryce W
Format: Article
Published: Oxford University Press / USA Sep2018
Subjects:
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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      dt: Sep2018
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      pub: Oxford University Press / USA
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        atl: The Political Geography of Rebellion: Using Event Data to Identify Insurgent Territory, Preferences, and Relocation Patterns.
      aug:
        au: Reeder, Bryce W
        affil: University of Missouri
      su:
        Insurgency
        Civil war
        Individuals' preferences
        Political geography
        Crimes against civilians in war
        Petroleum
        Gems & precious stones
      sug:
        subj:
          Insurgency
          Civil war
          Individuals' preferences
          All other non-metallic mineral mining and quarrying
          All Other Nonmetallic Mineral Mining
          Jewelry, Watch, Precious Stone, and Precious Metal Merchant Wholesalers
          Mineral, ore and precious metal merchant wholesalers
          Jewellery and watch merchant wholesalers
          Petroleum Bulk Stations and Terminals
          Petroleum and Petroleum Products Merchant Wholesalers (except Bulk Stations and Terminals)
          Pipeline Transportation of Crude Oil
          Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
          Petroleum and petroleum products merchant wholesalers
          Political geography
          Crimes against civilians in war
          Petroleum
          Gems & precious stones
      ab: The increasing availability of event data has led to a surge in micro-level research investigating civil war violence. Event data, however, introduces bias due to systemic underreporting of events. This study introduces a method that accounts for this bias by making a spatial prediction of unreported events based on the known locations of rebels and their preferences for local-level factors estimated using habitat analysis. I then combine this prediction with known locations of rebel activity and use it to predict rebel territory and relocation patterns. I next perform a regression analysis on 119 African rebel groups that links preferences to conflict behavior. Preferences for gold, petroleum, gemstones, and cobalt are associated with civilian victimization, whereas rebels who prefer steeper slopes are more successful in battles with government forces. Further, government forces tend to be successful when battling rebels with preferences for petroleum and international borders.
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      src: R
    language: English
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