When are Purely Predictive Models Best?
Can purely predictive models be useful in investigating causal systems? I argue "yes". Moreover, in many cases not only are they useful, they are essential. The alternative is to stick to models or mechanisms drawn from well-understood theory. But a necessary condition for explanation is empirical s...
| Publicado en: | Disputatio: International Journal of Philosophy Vol. 9; no. 47; pp. 631 - 657 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Paradigm Publishing Services
Dec2017
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=132647644&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 132647644 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 0873626X 1CM2 jtl: Disputatio: International Journal of Philosophy issn: 0873626X maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Dec2017 vid: 9 iid: 47 pid: 35924 pub: Paradigm Publishing Services artinfo: ui: 132647644 10.1515/disp-2017-0021 ppf: 631 ppct: 26 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P size: 1MB tig: atl: When are Purely Predictive Models Best? aug: au: Northcott, Robert affil: Birkbeck College, University of London su: Prediction models Social sciences Explanation Elections Weather forecasting sug: subj: Prediction models Social sciences Explanation Elections Weather forecasting keyword: causation explanation idealization Prediction weather ab: Can purely predictive models be useful in investigating causal systems? I argue "yes". Moreover, in many cases not only are they useful, they are essential. The alternative is to stick to models or mechanisms drawn from well-understood theory. But a necessary condition for explanation is empirical success, and in many cases in social and field sciences such success can only be achieved by purely predictive models, not by ones drawn from theory. Alas, the attempt to use theory to achieve explanation or insight without empirical success therefore fails, leaving us with the worst of both worlds--neither prediction nor explanation. Best go with empirical success by any means necessary. I support these methodological claims via case studies of two impressive feats of predictive modelling: opinion polling of political elections, and weather forecasting. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y custom: Copyright of Disputatio: International Journal of Philosophy is the property of Paradigm Publishing Services and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. item: Disputatio: International Journal of Philosophy holder: Paradigm Publishing Services dt: @attributes: year: 2017 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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