Mapping and predicting forest loss in a Sumatran tiger landscape from 2002 to 2050.
Abstract Riau Province in central Sumatra, with its peatland, lowland, and montane forest habitats, was once a stronghold for Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae) populations. Today, Riau may have one of the highest deforestation rates in the world and wildlife populations are dwindling, with n...
| Published in: | Journal of Environmental Management Vol. 231; pp. 397 - 405 |
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| Main Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Article |
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Academic Press Inc.
Feb2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | View this record in EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=133750126&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 133750126 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 03014797 EMJ jtl: Journal of Environmental Management issn: 03014797 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Feb2019 vid: 231 pid: 735 pub: Academic Press Inc. artinfo: ui: 133750126 10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.10.065 ppf: 397 ppct: 8 formats: tig: atl: Mapping and predicting forest loss in a Sumatran tiger landscape from 2002 to 2050. aug: au: Poor, Erin E. Shao, Yang Kelly, Marcella J. affil: Virginia Tech, Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, 100 Cheatham Hall, 310 W. Campus Drive, Blacksburg, VA 24060, USA Virginia Tech, Department of Geography, 115 Major Williams Hall, 220 Stanger Street, Blacksburg, VA 24060, USA su: Deforestation Land cover Sumatran tiger Forest mapping Mountain forests Animal populations sug: subj: Deforestation Land cover Sumatran tiger Forest mapping Mountain forests Animal populations keyword: Connectivity Land cover map Land cover prediction Palm oil Connectivity Land cover map Land cover prediction Palm oil ab: Abstract Riau Province in central Sumatra, with its peatland, lowland, and montane forest habitats, was once a stronghold for Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae) populations. Today, Riau may have one of the highest deforestation rates in the world and wildlife populations are dwindling, with natural forest now comprising approximately only 18% of the province, mostly contained within protected areas. Agriculture (acacia, rubber, and oil palm) makes up the majority of Riau's land cover and deforestation for the creation of new plantations is rampant. Natural forest and tigers still remain in Bukit Tigapuluh National Park and Rimbang Baling Wildlife Reserve, which remain connected to tiger populations in montane forest on the western edge of Sumatra. In this study, using freely available Landsat imagery and a maximum likelihood classification algorithm, we create land cover maps for central Sumatra from 2002 to 2016. We then use current land cover, elevation, and slope variables to predict changes from forest to plantation from 2016 to 2050 at five year intervals using a multilayer perceptron neural network. Finally, we compare connectivity based on a 100 km distance threshold (based on potential tiger dispersal) across the landscape and across years. Land cover maps had 80–90% accuracy, and we predict forest in Tesso Nilo and the western edge of the study area to be lost by 2050 given current rates of deforestation. Our connectivity analysis shows that Tesso Nilo and the area between Rimbang Baling and Bukit Tigapuluh are important components for maintaining connectivity throughout the study area. Focusing conservation and rehabilitation efforts on forests close to plantations in flat areas, including Tesso Nilo, is necessary to maintain forests and increase connectivity in Riau to ensure future habitat connectivity for survival of tigers and Sumatra's other diverse endemic species. Highlights • Newly created, accuracy assessed land cover maps are 81.05–92.06% accurate. • From 2002 to 2016, 34.55% of forest in central Riau has been lost. • We predict 58.19% of forest will further be lost from 2016 to 2050. • By 2050 nearly all forest will be lost in Tesso Nilo National Park. • The integral index of connectivity across the landscape decreases by 92%, indicating lack of connected forests for wildlife. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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