Belief dependence: How do the numbers count?

This paper is about how to aggregate outside opinion. If two experts are on one side of an issue, while three experts are on the other side, what should a non-expert believe? Certainly, the non-expert should take into account more than just the numbers. But which other factors are relevant, and why?...

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Publicado en:Philosophical Studies Vol. 176; no. 2; pp. 297 - 320
Autor principal: Barnett, Zach
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Springer Nature Feb2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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        au: Barnett, Zach
        affil: Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
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        Legal opinions
        Belief & doubt
        Thought & thinking
        Specialists
        Relevance
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          Legal opinions
          Belief & doubt
          Thought & thinking
          Specialists
          Relevance
      keyword:
        Belief dependence
        Disagreement
        Epistemology
        Social epistemology
      ab: This paper is about how to aggregate outside opinion. If two experts are on one side of an issue, while three experts are on the other side, what should a non-expert believe? Certainly, the non-expert should take into account more than just the numbers. But which other factors are relevant, and why? According to the view developed here, one important factor is whether the experts should have been expected, in advance, to reach the same conclusion. When the agreement of two (or of twenty) thinkers can be predicted with certainty in advance, their shared belief is worth only as much as one of their beliefs would be worth alone. This expectational model of belief dependence can be applied whether we think in terms of credences or in terms of all-or-nothing beliefs.
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    language: English
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