The Credibility of Public and Private Signals: A Document-Based Approach.
Crisis bargaining literature has predominantly used formal and qualitative methods to debate the relative efficacy of actions, public words, and private words. These approaches have overlooked the reality that policymakers are bombarded with information and struggle to adduce actual signals from end...
| Publicado en: | American Political Science Review Vol. 113; no. 1; pp. 156 - 173 |
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| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Cambridge University Press
Feb2019
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=134449558&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 134449558 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00030554 APR jtl: American Political Science Review issn: 00030554 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Feb2019 vid: 113 iid: 1 pid: 15979 pub: Cambridge University Press artinfo: ui: 134449558 10.1017/S0003055418000643 ppf: 156 ppct: 17 formats: tig: atl: The Credibility of Public and Private Signals: A Document-Based Approach. aug: au: KATAGIRI, AZUSA MIN, ERIC affil: Nanyang Technological University University of California, Los Angeles su: Truthfulness & falsehood Collective action Political communication Communication in international relations Diplomacy Elite (Social sciences) Public speaking Message processing (Telecommunication) sug: subj: Truthfulness & falsehood Collective action Political communication Communication in international relations Diplomacy Elite (Social sciences) Public speaking Message processing (Telecommunication) ab: Crisis bargaining literature has predominantly used formal and qualitative methods to debate the relative efficacy of actions, public words, and private words. These approaches have overlooked the reality that policymakers are bombarded with information and struggle to adduce actual signals from endless noise. Material actions are therefore more effective than any diplomatic communication in shaping elites' perceptions. Moreover, while ostensibly "costless," private messages provide a more precise communication channel than public and "costly" pronouncements. Over 18,000 declassified documents from the Berlin Crisis of 1958–63 reflecting private statements, public statements, and White House evaluations of Soviet resolve are digitized and processed using statistical learning techniques to assess these claims. The results indicate that material actions have greater influence on the White House than either public or private statements; that public statements are noisier than private statements; and that private statements have a larger effect on evaluations of resolve than public statements. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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