Predicting Known Terrorist Event Outcomes and the Illusion of Self‐Assessed Expertise*.
Objective: This study focuses on the influence of self‐assessed expertise on forecasting accuracy for incomplete information. We investigate this ability in individuals using a series of indicators of terrorist behaviors. Method: An instrument containing incomplete data on terrorist attacks was prov...
| Publicado en: | Social Science Quarterly (Wiley-Blackwell) Vol. 100; no. 3; pp. 965 - 975 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Wiley-Blackwell
May2019
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=135896687&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 135896687 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00384941 SSQ jtl: Social Science Quarterly (Wiley-Blackwell) issn: 00384941 maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: May2019 vid: 100 iid: 3 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell artinfo: ui: 135896687 10.1111/ssqu.12601 ppf: 965 ppct: 10 formats: tig: atl: Predicting Known Terrorist Event Outcomes and the Illusion of Self‐Assessed Expertise*. aug: au: Regens, James L. Mould, Nick Foster, Clay affil: University of Oklahoma Speirs New Technologies University of North Carolina su: Terrorism Terrorists Skepticism Statistics Pattern perception sug: subj: Terrorism Terrorists Skepticism Statistics Pattern perception ab: Objective: This study focuses on the influence of self‐assessed expertise on forecasting accuracy for incomplete information. We investigate this ability in individuals using a series of indicators of terrorist behaviors. Method: An instrument containing incomplete data on terrorist attacks was provided to participants. Participants were instructed to predict missing values. The accuracy of approximately 1,900 forecasts was determined. The influence of self‐identified statistical ability, terrorism familiarity, and an empirical measure of pattern recognition ability on accuracy was investigated. Results: The results of the experiment indicate that neither self‐assessed statistical ability nor terrorism familiarity have a significant influence on forecast accuracy. Interestingly, the empirical estimate of pattern recognition ability also had no appreciable effect on accuracy. Conclusion: This study indicates that statistical ability and terrorism familiarity have little effect on forecast accuracy. Innate pattern recognition ability also showed no significant relationship with accuracy. These findings suggest that self‐identified expertise should initially be viewed with some level of skepticism. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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