Development of an Empirically Calibrated Model of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in High-Risk Regions.
Objective. This study constructs, calibrates, and verifies a mathematical simulation model designed to project the natural history of ESCC and is intended to serve as a platform for testing the benefits and cost-effectiveness of primary and secondary ESCC prevention alternatives. Methods. The mathem...
| Publicado en: | BioMed Research International pp. 1 - 10 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | equations & formulas research tables/charts Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
Wiley-Blackwell
5/22/2019
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=136575496&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 136575496 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 23146133 FT2T jtl: BioMed Research International issn: 23146133 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: 5/22/2019 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell place: Malden, Massachusetts artinfo: ui: 136575496 136575496 136575496 10.1155/2019/2741598 136575496 ppf: 1 ppct: 9 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P tig: atl: Development of an Empirically Calibrated Model of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in High-Risk Regions. aug: au: Wang, Zhenhua Zhang, Qiang Wu, Bin affil: Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Key Laboratory of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Ministry of Health, State Key Laboratory for Oncogenes and Related Genes, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai Institute of Digestive Disease, China sug: subj: Cancer Screening Economics Simulations Models, Theoretical Esophageal Neoplasms Risk Factors Carcinoma, Squamous Cell Risk Factors Esophageal Neoplasms Diagnosis Carcinoma, Squamous Cell Diagnosis Cost Benefit Analysis Human Esophageal Mucosa Precancerous Conditions China Disease Progression Incidence Prevalence Chinese Persons Retrospective Design Esophageal Neoplasms Prevention and Control Carcinoma, Squamous Cell Prevention and Control Calibration ab: Objective. This study constructs, calibrates, and verifies a mathematical simulation model designed to project the natural history of ESCC and is intended to serve as a platform for testing the benefits and cost-effectiveness of primary and secondary ESCC prevention alternatives. Methods. The mathematical model illustrates the natural history of ESCC as a sequence of transitions among health states, including the primary health states (e.g., normal mucosa, precancerous lesions, and undetected and detected cancer). Using established calibration approaches, the parameter sets related to progression rates between health states were optimized to lead the model outputs to match the observed data (specifically, the prevalence of precancerous lesions and incidence of ESCC from the published literature in Chinese high-risk regions). As illustrative examples of clinical and policy application, the calibrated and validated model retrospectively simulate the potential benefit of two reported ESCC screening programs. Results. Nearly 1,000 good-fitting parameter sets were identified from 1,000,000 simulated sets. Model outcomes had sufficient calibration fit to the calibration targets. Additionally, the verification analyses showed reasonable external consistency between the model-predicted effectiveness of ESCC screening and the reported data from clinical trials. Conclusions. This parameterized mathematical model offers a tool for future research investigating benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness related to ESCC prevention and treatment. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: equations & formulas research tables/charts Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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