Epistemic Uncertainty, Subjective Probability, and Ancient History.
The subjective interpretation of probability—increasingly influential in other fields—makes probability a useful tool of historical analysis. It provides a framework that can accommodate the significant epistemic uncertainty involved in estimating historical quantities, especially (but not only) reg...
| Publicado en: | Journal of Interdisciplinary History Vol. 50; no. 1; pp. 91 - 112 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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MIT Press
Summer2019
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=136618035&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 136618035 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00221953 JIH jtl: Journal of Interdisciplinary History issn: 00221953 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Summer2019 vid: 50 iid: 1 pid: 776 pub: MIT Press artinfo: ui: 136618035 10.1162/jinh_a_01377 ppf: 91 ppct: 21 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 225KB tig: atl: Epistemic Uncertainty, Subjective Probability, and Ancient History. aug: au: Lavan, Myles su: Ancient history Roman Empire, 30 B.C.-A.D. 476 Probability theory Historical analysis Subjectivity Distribution (Probability theory) sug: subj: Ancient history Roman Empire, 30 B.C.-A.D. 476 Probability theory Historical analysis Subjectivity Distribution (Probability theory) ab: The subjective interpretation of probability—increasingly influential in other fields—makes probability a useful tool of historical analysis. It provides a framework that can accommodate the significant epistemic uncertainty involved in estimating historical quantities, especially (but not only) regarding periods for which we have limited data. Conceptualizing uncertainty in terms of probability distributions is a useful discipline because it forces historians to consider the degree of uncertainty as well as to identify a most-likely value. It becomes even more useful when multiple uncertain quantities are combined in a single analysis, a common occurrence in ancient history. Though it may appear a radical departure from current practice, it builds upon a probabilism that is already latent in historical reasoning. Most estimates of quantities in ancient history are implicit expressions of probability distributions, insofar as they represent the value judged to be most likely, given the available evidence. But the traditional point-estimate approach leaves historians' beliefs about the likelihood of other possible values unclear or unexamined. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y custom: Copyright of Journal of Interdisciplinary History is the property of MIT Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. item: Journal of Interdisciplinary History holder: MIT Press dt: @attributes: year: 2019 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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