Bounding Analyses of Age-Period-Cohort Effects.

For more than a century, researchers from a wide range of disciplines have sought to estimate the unique contributions of age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on a variety of outcomes. A key obstacle to these efforts is the linear dependence among the three time scales. Various methods have been pr...

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Publicado en:Demography (Springer Nature) Vol. 56; no. 5; pp. 1975 - 2005
Autores principales: Fosse, Ethan, Winship, Christopher
Formato: journal article
Publicado: Springer Nature Oct2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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        10.1007/s13524-019-00801-6
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        atl: Bounding Analyses of Age-Period-Cohort Effects.
      aug:
        au:
          Fosse, Ethan
          Winship, Christopher
        affil:
          Department of Sociology, University of Toronto, M5S 2J4, Toronto, ON, Canada
          Department of Sociology, Harvard University, 02138, Cambridge, MA, USA
      su:
        Cohort analysis
        Homicide rates
        Homicide
        Age distribution
        Epidemiology
        Mathematical bounds
        Linear dependence (Mathematics)
        Prostate cancer
        Time
        Statistical models
        Prostate tumors
      sug:
        subj:
          Cohort analysis
          Homicide rates
          Homicide
          Age distribution
          Epidemiology
          Mathematical bounds
          Linear dependence (Mathematics)
          Prostate cancer
          Time
          Statistical models
          Prostate tumors
      keyword:
        Age-period-cohort (APC) models
        Bounding analysis
        Causal inference
        Identification problem
        Age-period-cohort (APC) models
        Bounding analysis
        Causal inference
        Identification problem
      ab: For more than a century, researchers from a wide range of disciplines have sought to estimate the unique contributions of age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on a variety of outcomes. A key obstacle to these efforts is the linear dependence among the three time scales. Various methods have been proposed to address this issue, but they have suffered from either ad hoc assumptions or extreme sensitivity to small differences in model specification. After briefly reviewing past work, we outline a new approach for identifying temporal effects in population-level data. Fundamental to our framework is the recognition that it is only the slopes of an APC model that are unidentified, not the nonlinearities or particular combinations of the linear effects. One can thus use constraints implied by the data along with explicit theoretical claims to bound one or more of the APC effects. Bounds on these parameters may be nearly as informative as point estimates, even with relatively weak assumptions. To demonstrate the usefulness of our approach, we examine temporal effects in prostate cancer incidence and homicide rates. We conclude with a discussion of guidelines for further research on APC effects.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: journal article
      src: R
    language: English
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