Population Pyramids Yield Accurate Estimates of Total Fertility Rates.
The primary fertility index for a population, the total fertility rate (TFR), cannot be calculated for many areas and periods because it requires disaggregation of births by mother's age. Here we discuss a flexible framework for estimating TFR using inputs as minimal as a population pyramid. We deve...
| Publicado en: | Demography (Springer Nature) Vol. 57; no. 1; pp. 221 - 242 |
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| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | journal article |
| Publicado: |
Springer Nature
Feb2020
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=142041616&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 142041616 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00703370 DEM jtl: Demography (Springer Nature) issn: 00703370 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Feb2020 vid: 57 iid: 1 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature artinfo: ui: 142041616 10.1007/s13524-019-00842-x ppf: 221 ppct: 21 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 3.1MB tig: atl: Population Pyramids Yield Accurate Estimates of Total Fertility Rates. aug: au: Hauer, Mathew E. Schmertmann, Carl P. affil: Department of Sociology and Center for Demography and Population Health, Florida State University, 32306, Tallahassee, FL, USA Department of Economics and Center for Demography and Population Health, Florida State University, 32306, Tallahassee, FL, USA su: United States Fertility Human fertility Demographic surveys Maternal age Birth certificates sug: subj: Fertility Human fertility Demographic surveys United States Maternal age Birth certificates keyword: Bayesian models Indirect estimation Total fertility Bayesian models Indirect estimation Total fertility ab: The primary fertility index for a population, the total fertility rate (TFR), cannot be calculated for many areas and periods because it requires disaggregation of births by mother's age. Here we discuss a flexible framework for estimating TFR using inputs as minimal as a population pyramid. We develop five variants, each with increasing complexity and data requirements. We test accuracy across a diverse set of data sources that comprise more than 2,400 fertility schedules with known TFR values, including the Human Fertility Database, Demographic and Health Surveys, U.S. counties, and nonhuman species. We show that even the simplest and least accurate variant has a median error of only 0.09 births per woman over 2,400 fertility schedules, suggesting accurate TFR estimation over a wide range of demographic conditions. We anticipate that this framework will extend fertility analysis to new subpopulations, periods, geographies, and even species. To demonstrate the framework's utility in new applications, we produce subnational estimates of African fertility levels, reconstruct historical European TFRs for periods up to 150 years before the collection of detailed birth records, and estimate TFR for the United States conditional on race and household income. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: journal article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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