Risk and Uncertainty of Losing Suitable Habitat Areas Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study for 109 Gymnosperm Species in China.
Taking 109 gymnosperm species in China as a case, the uncertainty and risk of losing habitat areas of gymnosperm species under future climate conditions were investigated via representative concentration pathways climate change scenarios, fuzzy set classifications and Monte Carlo techniques. Under n...
| Publicado en: | Environmental Management Vol. 65; no. 4; pp. 517 - 534 |
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| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Journal Article |
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Springer Nature
Apr2020
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=142472521&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 142472521 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 0364152X O5H jtl: Environmental Management issn: 0364152X maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Apr2020 vid: 65 iid: 4 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature place: New York, New York artinfo: ui: 142472521 10.1007/s00267-020-01262-z 142472521 ppf: 517 ppct: 17 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P tig: atl: Risk and Uncertainty of Losing Suitable Habitat Areas Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study for 109 Gymnosperm Species in China. aug: au: Wu, Jianguo affil: The Institute of Environmental Ecology, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, No 8, Da Yang Fang, Beiyuan, Anwai, Chaoyang District, 100012, Beijing, China sug: ab: Taking 109 gymnosperm species in China as a case, the uncertainty and risk of losing habitat areas of gymnosperm species under future climate conditions were investigated via representative concentration pathways climate change scenarios, fuzzy set classifications and Monte Carlo techniques. Under nonrandom climate change scenarios, the richness of 109 species increased in the partial locations of northwestern and northeastern China and declined in the partial locations of eastern and central and southeastern China; the numbers of species that losing <20%, 20–40%, 40–60%, 60–80%, and over 80% of their current habitat areas were ~33–49, 36–40, 11–24, 7–9, and 2–8, respectively; ~99–105 species occupied over 80% of their total suitable areas and ~4–9 species occupied 60–80% their total suitable areas. Under random climate change scenarios, the number of species that losing various level of the habitat areas declined with enhancing probability; with a probabilities of over 0.6, the numbers of species that losing <20%, 20–40%, 40–60%, 60–80% and over 80% of their current habitat areas were ~19–28, 3–19, 0–3, 1–2, and 9–14, respectively, and the numbers of species that occupying ~20%, 20–40%, 40–60%, 60–80%, and over 80% of their total suitable areas were ~9–14, 4–11, 2–6, 1–3, and 34–45, respectively. Approximately 41% of 109 species will face extinction risks from climate change; the losing habitat areas in future climate condition will cause the varying of coniferous forest composition and the losing of ecosystem service related to the species; the uncertainty of losing distribution areas for species should not be ignored. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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