Time-conjunctive representations of future events.

It is widely accepted that people can predict the relative imminence of future events. However, it is unknown whether the timing of future events is represented using only a "strength-like" estimate or if future events are represented conjunctively with their position on a mental timeline. We examin...

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Published in:Memory & Cognition Vol. 48; no. 4; pp. 672 - 683
Main Authors: Babcock, Stuart W., Howard, Marc W., McGuire, Joseph T.
Format: Article
Published: Springer Nature May2020
Subjects:
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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      dt: May2020
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      pub: Springer Nature
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        10.3758/s13421-019-00999-1
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        atl: Time-conjunctive representations of future events.
      aug:
        au:
          Babcock, Stuart W.
          Howard, Marc W.
          McGuire, Joseph T.
        affil:
          Graduate Program for Neuroscience, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
          Center for Systems Neuroscience, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
          Department of Psychological & Brain Sciences, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
      su:
        Cognition
        Forecasting
        Memory
        Task performance
        Probability theory
      sug:
        subj:
          Cognition
          Forecasting
          Memory
          Task performance
          Probability theory
      keyword:
        Predictive inference
        Prospection
        Sequence learning
        Temporal cognition
        Predictive inference
        Prospection
        Sequence learning
        Temporal cognition
      ab: It is widely accepted that people can predict the relative imminence of future events. However, it is unknown whether the timing of future events is represented using only a "strength-like" estimate or if future events are represented conjunctively with their position on a mental timeline. We examined how people judge temporal relationships among anticipated future events using the novel Judgment of Anticipated Co-Occurrence (JACO) task. Participants were initially trained on a stream of letters sampled from a probabilistically repeating sequence. During test trials, the stream was interrupted with pairs of probe letters and the participants' task was to choose the probe letter they expected to appear in the stream during a lagged target window 4–6 items (4.3–8.5 s) in the future. Participants performed above chance as they gained experience with the task. Because the correct item was sometimes the more imminent probe letter and other times the less imminent probe letter, these results rule out the possibility that participants relied solely on thresholding a strength-like estimate of temporal imminence. Rather, these results suggest that participants held (1) temporally organized predictions of the future letters in the stream, (2) a temporal estimate of the lagged target window, and (3) some means to compare the two and evaluate their temporal alignment. Response time increased with the lag to the more imminent probe letter, suggesting that participants accessed the future sequentially in a manner that mirrors scanning processes previously proposed to operate on memory representations in the short-term judgment of recency task.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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