Metacognitive hindsight bias.

Hindsight bias (HB) is the tendency to see known information as obvious. We studied metacognitive hindsight bias (MC-HB)—a shift away from one's original confidence regarding answers provided before learning the actual facts. In two experiments, participants answered general-knowledge questions in s...

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Publicado en:Memory & Cognition Vol. 48; no. 5; pp. 731 - 745
Autores principales: Ackerman, Rakefet, Bernstein, Daniel M., Kumar, Ragav
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Springer Nature Jul2020
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Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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      pub: Springer Nature
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        10.3758/s13421-020-01012-w
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        atl: Metacognitive hindsight bias.
      aug:
        au:
          Ackerman, Rakefet
          Bernstein, Daniel M.
          Kumar, Ragav
        affil:
          Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion—Israel Institute of Technology Technion City, 3200003, Haifa, Israel
          Kwantlen Polytechnic University, Surrey, British Columbia, Canada
          University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada
      su:
        Confidence
        Discrimination (Sociology)
        Memory
        Social skills
        Calibration
        Cognitive testing
        Research evaluation
      sug:
        subj:
          Confidence
          Discrimination (Sociology)
          Memory
          Social skills
          Calibration
          Cognitive testing
          Research evaluation
      keyword:
        Hindsight bias
        Metacognition
        Social cognition
        Hindsight bias
        Metacognition
        Social cognition
      ab: Hindsight bias (HB) is the tendency to see known information as obvious. We studied metacognitive hindsight bias (MC-HB)—a shift away from one's original confidence regarding answers provided before learning the actual facts. In two experiments, participants answered general-knowledge questions in social scenarios and provided their confidence in each answer. Subsequently, they learned answers to half the questions and then recalled their initial answers and confidence. Finally, they reanswered, as a learning check. We measured confidence accuracy by calibration (over/underconfidence) and resolution (discrimination between incorrect and correct answers), expecting them to improve in hindsight. In both experiments, participants displayed robust HB and MC-HB for resolution despite attempts to recall the initial confidence in one's answer. In Experiment 2, promising anonymity to participants eliminated MC-HB, while social scenarios produced MC-HB for both resolution and calibration—indicative of overconfidence. Overall, our findings highlight that in social contexts, recall of confidence in hindsight is more consistent with answers' accuracy than confidence initially was. Social scenarios differently affect HB and MC-HB, thus dissociating these two biases.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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