Estimating the infection-fatality risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City during the spring 2020 pandemic wave: a model-based analysis.
Background: As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to unfold, the infection-fatality risk (ie, risk of death among all infected individuals including those with asymptomatic and mild infections) is crucial for gauging the burden of death due to COVID-19 in the coming months or years. Here, we estimate t...
| Publicado en: | Lancet Infectious Diseases Vol. 21; no. 2; pp. 203 - 213 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Formato: | research Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
Elsevier B.V.
Feb2021
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=148336173&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 148336173 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 14733099 KIL jtl: Lancet Infectious Diseases issn: 14733099 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Feb2021 vid: 21 iid: 2 pid: 467 pub: Elsevier B.V. place: New York, New York artinfo: ui: 148336173 148336173 NLM33091374 148336173 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30769-6 NLM33091374 148336173 ppf: 203 ppct: 10 formats: tig: atl: Estimating the infection-fatality risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City during the spring 2020 pandemic wave: a model-based analysis. aug: au: Yang, Wan Kandula, Sasikiran Huynh, Mary Greene, Sharon K Van Wye, Gretchen Li, Wenhui Chan, Hiu Tai McGibbon, Emily Yeung, Alice Olson, Don Fine, Anne Shaman, Jeffrey affil: Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York City, NY, USA sug: ab: Background: As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to unfold, the infection-fatality risk (ie, risk of death among all infected individuals including those with asymptomatic and mild infections) is crucial for gauging the burden of death due to COVID-19 in the coming months or years. Here, we estimate the infection-fatality risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in New York City, NY, USA, the first epidemic centre in the USA, where the infection-fatality risk remains unclear.Methods: In this model-based analysis, we developed a meta-population network model-inference system to estimate the underlying SARS-CoV-2 infection rate in New York City during the 2020 spring pandemic wave using available case, mortality, and mobility data. Based on these estimates, we further estimated the infection-fatality risk for all ages overall and for five age groups (<25, 25-44, 45-64, 65-74, and ≥75 years) separately, during the period March 1 to June 6, 2020 (ie, before the city began a phased reopening).Findings: During the period March 1 to June 6, 2020, 205 639 people had a laboratory-confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2 and 21 447 confirmed and probable COVID-19-related deaths occurred among residents of New York City. We estimated an overall infection-fatality risk of 1·39% (95% credible interval 1·04-1·77) in New York City. Our estimated infection-fatality risk for the two oldest age groups (65-74 and ≥75 years) was much higher than the younger age groups, with a cumulative estimated infection-fatality risk of 0·116% (0·0729-0·148) for those aged 25-44 years and 0·939% (0·729-1·19) for those aged 45-64 years versus 4·87% (3·37-6·89) for those aged 65-74 years and 14·2% (10·2-18·1) for those aged 75 years and older. In particular, weekly infection-fatality risk was estimated to be as high as 6·72% (5·52-8·01) for those aged 65-74 years and 19·1% (14·7-21·9) for those aged 75 years and older.Interpretation: Our results are based on more complete ascertainment of COVID-19-related deaths in New York City than other places and thus probably reflect the true higher burden of death due to COVID-19 than that previously reported elsewhere. Given the high infection-fatality risk of SARS-CoV-2, governments must account for and closely monitor the infection rate and population health outcomes and enact prompt public health responses accordingly as the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds.Funding: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Science Foundation Rapid Response Research Program, and New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: research Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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