Predicting the End of the Syrian Conflict: From Theory to the Reality of a Civil War.
The Syrian civil war has confounded all predictions on its end date and is still ongoing. Valuable explicative work has been done on civil war duration; however, scholars have failed to reliably predict the end of ongoing conflicts. This article argues that faulty predictions on termination date of...
| Publicado en: | Studies in Conflict & Terrorism Vol. 44; no. 4; pp. 326 - 346 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Taylor & Francis Ltd
2021
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=148981449&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 148981449 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 1057610X CNF jtl: Studies in Conflict & Terrorism issn: 1057610X maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: 2021 vid: 44 iid: 4 pid: 377 pub: Taylor & Francis Ltd artinfo: ui: 148981449 10.1080/1057610X.2018.1538153 ppf: 326 ppct: 20 formats: tig: atl: Predicting the End of the Syrian Conflict: From Theory to the Reality of a Civil War. aug: au: Sharif, Sally affil: Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies, The Graduate Center, CUNY, New York, NY, USA su: Conflict theory Civil war Syrian Civil War, 2011- Statistical errors Syrians Statistical models sug: subj: Conflict theory Civil war Syrian Civil War, 2011- Statistical errors Syrians Statistical models ab: The Syrian civil war has confounded all predictions on its end date and is still ongoing. Valuable explicative work has been done on civil war duration; however, scholars have failed to reliably predict the end of ongoing conflicts. This article argues that faulty predictions on termination date of the Syrian conflict did not necessarily result from statistical errors in modeling civil wars data and better models might not necessarily mitigate the prediction problem. Rather, three factors contributed to the misperceptions: the conflict's cartography problem, the splintering of the opposition, and the multi-partner foreign intervention in the conflict. The last two factors can also be held accountable for prolonging the conflict. Incorrect predictions or descriptions in scholarly works on ongoing conflicts can have disastrous implications for the present and future of states and populations beset by protracted conflict. Had it been made clear that neither the insurgents nor the government had the capacity to win the war within the predicted timeframe, the international community may have taken a more decisive role in bringing belligerents to the negotiation table, improving prospects for a peaceful diplomatic settlement. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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