The interpretation of uncertainty in ecological rationality.

Despite the ubiquity of uncertainty, scientific attention has focused primarily on probabilistic approaches, which predominantly rely on the assumption that uncertainty can be measured and expressed numerically. At the same time, the increasing amount of research from a range of areas including psyc...

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Publicado en:Synthese Vol. 198; no. 2; pp. 1517 - 1548
Autores principales: Kozyreva, Anastasia, Hertwig, Ralph
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Springer Nature Feb2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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          Kozyreva, Anastasia
          Hertwig, Ralph
        affil: Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195, Berlin, Germany
      su:
        Uncertainty
        Bounded rationality
        Probability theory
        Decision making
      sug:
        subj:
          Uncertainty
          Bounded rationality
          Probability theory
          Decision making
      keyword:
        Ecological rationality
        Heuristics
        Probability
        Risk
      ab: Despite the ubiquity of uncertainty, scientific attention has focused primarily on probabilistic approaches, which predominantly rely on the assumption that uncertainty can be measured and expressed numerically. At the same time, the increasing amount of research from a range of areas including psychology, economics, and sociology testify that in the real world, people's understanding of risky and uncertain situations cannot be satisfactorily explained in probabilistic and decision-theoretical terms. In this article, we offer a theoretical overview of an alternative approach to uncertainty developed in the framework of the ecological rationality research program. We first trace the origins of the ecological approach to uncertainty in Simon's bounded rationality and Brunswik's lens model framework and then proceed by outlining a theoretical view of uncertainty that ensues from the ecological rationality approach. We argue that the ecological concept of uncertainty relies on a systemic view of uncertainty that features it as a property of the organism–environment system. We also show how simple heuristics can deal with unmeasurable uncertainty and in what cases ignoring probabilities emerges as a proper response to uncertainty.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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