Inferring Risk Perceptions and Preferences Using Choice from Insurance Menus: Theory and Evidence.

Demand for insurance can be driven by high risk aversion or high-risk. We show how to separately identify risk preferences and risk types using only choices from menus of insurance plans. Our revealed preference approach does not rely on rational expectations, nor does it require access to claims da...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Economic Journal Vol. 131; no. 634; pp. 713 - 745
Main Authors: Ericson, Keith Marzilli, Kircher, Philipp, Spinnewijn, Johannes, Starc, Amanda
Format: Article
Published: Oxford University Press / USA Feb2021
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Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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Summary:Demand for insurance can be driven by high risk aversion or high-risk. We show how to separately identify risk preferences and risk types using only choices from menus of insurance plans. Our revealed preference approach does not rely on rational expectations, nor does it require access to claims data. We show what can be learned non-parametrically about the type distributions from variation in insurance plans, offered separately to random cross-sections or offered as part of the same menu to one cross-section. We prove that our approach allows for full identification in the textbook model with binary risks, and extend our results to continuous risks. We illustrate our approach using the Massachusetts Health Insurance Exchange, where choices provide informative bounds on the type distributions, especially for risks, but do not allow us to reject homogeneity in preferences.