A subjectivist's guide to deterministic chance.
I present an account of deterministic chance which builds upon the physico-mathematical approach to theorizing about deterministic chance known as the method of arbitrary functions. This approach promisingly yields deterministic probabilities which align with what we take the chances to be—it tells...
| Publicado en: | Synthese Vol. 198; no. 5; pp. 4339 - 4373 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Springer Nature
May2021
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=150416033&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 150416033 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00397857 4LI jtl: Synthese issn: 00397857 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: May2021 vid: 198 iid: 5 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature artinfo: ui: 150416033 10.1007/s11229-019-02346-y ppf: 4339 ppct: 34 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P size: 698KB tig: atl: A subjectivist's guide to deterministic chance. aug: au: Gallow, J. Dmitri affil: Department of Philosophy, University of Pittsburgh, 1029-D Cathedral of Learning, 4200 Fifth Avenue, 15260, Pittsburgh, PA, USA su: Probability theory Coins Probabilistic number theory Wheels sug: subj: Probability theory Coins Probabilistic number theory Wheels keyword: Deterministic chance Method of arbitrary functions Principal principle ab: I present an account of deterministic chance which builds upon the physico-mathematical approach to theorizing about deterministic chance known as the method of arbitrary functions. This approach promisingly yields deterministic probabilities which align with what we take the chances to be—it tells us that there is approximately a 1/2 probability of a spun roulette wheel stopping on black, and approximately a 1/2 probability of a flipped coin landing heads up—but it requires some probabilistic materials to work with. I contend that the right probabilistic materials are found in reasonable initial credence distributions. I note that, with some rather weak normative assumptions, the resulting account entails that deterministic chances obey a variant of Lewis's 'principal principle'. I additionally argue that deterministic chances, so understood, are capable of explaining long-run frequencies. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y custom: Synthese is a copyright of Springer, 2021. All Rights Reserved. item: Synthese holder: Springer Nature dt: @attributes: year: 2021 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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